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RBI likely to go for steps to spur growth in February monetary policy review: Jefferies

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Mumbai, Jan 29: The RBI’s monetary policy committee meeting scheduled for February is likely to spring some positive surprises with a growth-favoured approach, according to brokerage firm Jefferies.

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) policies can take a growth-supportive turn, especially with the government expected to take a tight fiscal stance on February 1, Jefferies said in a note.

The recent move by the central bank to provide liquidity is a positive indicator, the report said. It was referring to the RBI’s announcement this week that it would inject Rs 1.5 lakh crore liquidity into the banking system in the coming weeks till the end of February.

If the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led committee takes a potentially dovish stance on liquidity or rates, the rupee may depreciate further, Jefferies observed in its note.

“Our cautious view on the budget is predicated on an expected slowdown in government capex.” But the stock corrections largely build in those worries, it said. A high base in revenues and the government’s firmness on fiscal consolidation will likely limit any significant spending growth, Jefferies said.

On the slowdown in economic growth, most of the reasons are temporary. The March quarter should be better with the significant underspending in eight months of fiscal 2025 expected to reverse from November 2024 to March 2025, the brokerage said.

Further, a potential improvement in liquidity and regulations can prompt some uptick in the months ahead, it added.

The pressures to increase expenditure on social welfare schemes are rising and there are some expectations of a hike in corporate taxes. If neither were to happen, the market may be relieved, Jeffries said.

The RBI had, in its monetary policy review on December 6, slashed the cash reserve ratio (CRR) for banks by 0.5 per cent to make more funds available for lending to spur economic growth but kept the key policy repo rate unchanged at 6.5 per cent with an eye on inflation.

The CRR was reduced from 4.5 per cent to 4 per cent. This was the first time since March 2020 that the CRR has been cut. The CRR is the proportion of deposits that banks have to set aside as idle cash in the system.

The CRR cut infused Rs 1.16 lakh crore into the banking system and was aimed to bring down market interest rates to spur growth.

The RBI on Monday announced that it would inject another Rs 1.10 lakh crore liquidity in the banking system through open market purchase auctions of Government securities and carrying out a variable rate repo auction. Besides, a $5 billion dollar-rupee swap auction would also be held to provide more liquidity in the system. These measures are aimed at making more funds available to banks for giving out loans and bringing down the interest rate as part of the measures to spur growth in an economy that has been slowing economy amid geopolitical uncertainties.

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Equity markets open flat amid gains in crude oil prices

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New Delhi, Aug 11: Domestic equity markets opened flat on Tuesday after surge in crude oil prices, while information technology and consumer durables stocks gained offset by weakness in banking and financial counters.

Sensex opened 32.67 points or 0.04 per cent lower at 78,509.77, while Nifty started the session declining 8.70 points or 0.04 per cent at 24,575.10.

Sector-wise, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom rose 0.73 per cent, Nifty Consumer Durables gained 0.66 per cent and Nifty IT advanced 0.63 per cent. Real estate, auto and pharmaceutical shares also traded in positive territory.

On the other hand, banking stocks were under pressure as Nifty Private Bank fell 0.64 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.62 per cent.

Market experts said rising crude oil prices remained an irritant for equities, although improving domestic fundamentals, better-than-expected June-quarter earnings and stability in the rupee were providing support.

“Rising Brent crude price continues to be an irritant for the market even as other fundamentals exhibit strength,” they said, adding that foreign institutional investors turning buyers, encouraged by better-than-expected Q1 results and rupee stability, could keep the market resilient with a slight upward bias.

According to analysts, robust domestic consumption could sustain earnings growth through FY27, while large FCNR (B) inflows may support the rupee and, in turn, facilitate further foreign investor inflows.

Foreign investors are also rotating capital away from the so-called ‘chip trade’ in South Korea and Taiwan and compensating for their under-ownership of Indian equities, the experts said.

Interestingly, such flows are being directed towards relatively expensive sectors such as telecom, renewable energy, capital goods and pharmaceuticals rather than attractively valued banking majors, they said.

From a technical perspective, analysts see immediate support for the Nifty in the 24,400-24,450 zone and resistance at 24,750-24,800. Holding above the support zone could keep the index’s sideways-to-positive bias intact, with buying interest likely to emerge on dips. A decisive break above 24,750-24,800 could improve momentum and provide a fresh directional trigger.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.41 per cent to $88.08 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.47 per cent to $82.52 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 2 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 1 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.6 per cent.

US equities ended marginally lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.06 per cent and the Nasdaq falling 0.32 per cent.

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Customs duty on gold, silver, platinum tops Rs 10,460 crore since duty hike

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New Delhi : The government has collected Rs 10,463 crore in customs duty from imports of gold, silver and platinum between May 13 and August 2 following the increase in import duties on the precious metals, Parliament was informed on Monday.

In a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said customs duty collections during the period stood at Rs 10,040 crore on gold, Rs 328 crore on silver and Rs 95 crore on platinum.

The combined customs duty collection from the three precious metals thus amounted to Rs 10,463 crore during the period.

With effect from May 13, the government had increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15 per cent from 6 per cent, while the duty on platinum was raised to 15.4 per cent from 6.4 per cent.

Moreover, consequential changes were also made to duties on related items, including gold and silver dore, coins and findings.

Chaudhary said the government had taken the decision to curb discretionary imports and prioritise foreign exchange for essential imports such as crude oil, fertilisers, industrial raw materials and capital goods.

The duty hike came against the backdrop of rising global uncertainties, including the conflict in West Asia and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which had pushed up prices of crude oil as well as food and fertiliser imports.

The minister also informed the House that enforcement agencies seized 161 kg of smuggled gold and arrested 116 persons between May 13 and June 30.

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold after China with imports largely driven by demand from the jewellery sector.

Gold imports account for a significant outflow of foreign exchange and are closely monitored by policymakers from a balance-of-payments perspective.

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TRAI mandates 1601-series numbers for service calls from utilities, logistics firms

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New Delhi : The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Monday directed telecom operators to begin onboarding entities from select non-financial sectors onto the new 1601-series numbering framework for transactional and service voice calls extending a system already in use by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector.

After this decision, consumers can identify genuine service and transactional calls and curb impersonation and fraud carried out through regular 10-digit mobile numbers.

In addition, TRAI said it has issued directions on the use of the 1601-series numbers for entities in sectors other than BFSI and government organisations which currently use the 1600-series numbering framework.

The authority also noted that the widespread adoption of 1600-series numbers by BFSI entities has provided valuable operational experience for expanding the trusted numbering framework to other sectors.

Under the first phase of implementation, the 1601-series will be allotted to entities in the utilities sector, including electricity distribution companies, water utilities, city gas distribution companies, LPG distributors and other utility service providers.

The logistics and courier sector has also been included in Phase-I, covering courier companies, express logistics firms, parcel delivery service providers as well as freight and logistics operators involved in consignments delivery.

TRAI said the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has allocated the 1601-series for such calls and telecom service providers (TSPs) have been directed to complete migration and onboarding of eligible entities covered under Phase-I within 90 days from the date of the order.

The regulator further noted that 1601-series numbers would be allocated directly to eligible entities rather than intermediaries or aggregators following verification by telecom operators.

“The distinct numbering identity will enable the consumers to easily identify legitimate service and transactional calls, thereby strengthening trust in such voice-based communications,” the regulator said.

Additionally, TRAI clarified that the 1601-series numbers cannot be used for promotional voice calls by any entity.

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