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Q1 earnings, crude oil trends likely to drive Dalal Street next week

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Mumbai, July 12: Investors will closely track the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season, movement in crude oil prices, foreign fund flows and developments in West Asia next week after the Indian stock market ended its four-week winning streak amid heightened geopolitical tensions and volatile global cues.

Benchmark indices closed the week with marginal losses as renewed tensions in West Asia and a spike in crude oil prices dented investor sentiment.

However, a strong recovery in the final two trading sessions, supported by easing global concerns and robust earnings from Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), helped limit the losses.

The Sensex declined 0.25 per cent during the week to settle at 77,569.39, while the Nifty slipped 0.26 per cent to close at 24,206.90.

In contrast, broader markets remained resilient, with both the midcap and smallcap indices gaining more than one per cent.

Market participants are expected to keep a close watch on the June quarter earnings season, which has begun on a positive note following TCS’ better-than-expected financial performance. The upcoming earnings announcements from several major companies will be crucial in determining the market’s near-term direction.

Geopolitical developments in West Asia will also remain in focus. Investor sentiment turned cautious during the week after fresh US strikes on Iran heightened concerns over regional stability and global energy supplies. Any further escalation or signs of de-escalation are likely to influence risk appetite across global markets.

Crude oil prices will continue to be another key monitorable. Oil prices eased towards the end of the week amid expectations that the US and Iran would continue diplomatic engagement despite renewed hostilities and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The trajectory of crude prices remains critical for India, a major oil importer, as sustained increases could raise inflationary pressures and impact corporate profitability.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net buyers through most of the week, investing around Rs 4,670 crore on a net basis.

The continued foreign inflows, aided by softer crude prices and improving global risk sentiment, provided support to domestic equities despite intermittent volatility.

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India-US trade deal 98-99 percent done: US official

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Washington, Oct 16: A long-awaited trade agreement between India and the United States is almost complete, with only one or two per cent of negotiations remaining, a senior US official said, signalling that the two countries are approaching a breakthrough after months of high-level discussions.

The official said the biggest issues had already been resolved and that negotiations were continuing at the highest political levels, including between President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“The biggest items have been settled. I mean …., it’s pretty much done. We have that one, one or two per cent left,” the official told reporters during a State Department briefing on Friday.

The remarks came ahead of Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s scheduled visit to India, where he will hold discussions with Indian government officials and leading business executives in Mumbai and Jamnagar.

The official said the two governments remained in constant contact over the proposed agreement.

“We are actively engaged every single week,” the official said, adding that high-level discussions on the trade deal were taking place regularly.

The official cited recent diplomatic engagements involving US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, India’s Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal and conversations between Trump and PM Modi as evidence of the momentum behind the negotiations.

However, the official also identified a significant complication that had delayed the agreement.

An earlier understanding had been linked to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or IEEPA, but the legal framework had to be reconsidered after the law was struck down, according to the official.

The development forced negotiators to revisit elements of the proposed agreement and contributed to several additional months of discussions.

Despite those complications, the official expressed optimism that the remaining differences could be resolved soon.

Rubio is scheduled to travel first to Uzbekistan for meetings with Central Asian leaders before proceeding to India.

In Mumbai, he will meet Indian government counterparts and senior executives from some of the country’s largest companies.

The official said the decision to visit Mumbai rather than New Delhi reflected the administration’s growing emphasis on commercial diplomacy and Indian investment in the United States.

Rubio will also travel to Jamnagar.

The official said Washington was seeking closer engagement with India across information technology, pharmaceuticals, defence cooperation and other sectors.

Further visits by senior American Cabinet officials are also anticipated next year as both governments seek to expand bilateral engagement.

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Sensex, Nifty trade lower in early deals; IT shares buck trend

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New Delhi, Oct 16: Domestic equity benchmark indices traded lower on Friday, tracking mixed global cues, while information technology (IT) shares supported the market with gains.

In early deals, Sensex was trading 0.29 per cent or 221.89 points lower at 74,093, hitting an intraday low. Similarly, Nifty recorded an intraday low of 22,942, down 0.24 per cent or 55.19 points.

Earlier in the day Sensex opened 0.03 per cent or 25.47 points higher at 74,341.08 against its previous close of 74,315.61. While the 50-scrip basket began the trading session at 23,065.10, up 0.29 per cent or 67.75 points from its previous close of 22,997.35.

In morning trade, Nifty IT, Nifty Media, Nifty PSU Bank and Nifty Metal surged up to 1.59 per cent. In contrast, Nifty Oil & Gas, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom and Nifty FMCG declined up to 0.86 per cent.

Meanwhile, realty and auto sectoral indices were also trading lower, while pharma, cement, healthcare and private bank saw marginal declines.

According to market experts, India has significantly outperformed other markets this week with 668-point gains in Nifty 50 in the last three days.

The outperformance is driven by a weakening AI trade, expectations of major changes in LTCG taxation in the coming Budget, and positive fallout from Q2 results that have been better than expected so far.

They further noted that good results from IT majors and positive management commentary have led to a smart 9 per cent revival in the IT index, contributing to the resilience of the Nifty.

“Q2 results of telecom, banking, automobiles and metals like copper, aluminium and zinc are expected to be impressive and provide fundamental support to the market,” they added.

“Another positive development is the sharp decline in the US 10-year bond yield to 5.07 per cent. This, along with strength in the rupee, can restrain FII selling to some extent,” according to the experts.

However, FIIs are likely to continue selling so long as the 10-year yield remains above 5 per cent and Brent trades above $100.

While maintaining a 23,200-23,600 view, analysts expect mean reversion moves while below 23,070, given the sharp rise in the previous session. Dips are expected to find buying interest as long as they do not stretch beyond 22,780.

On global cues, Asian equities traded higher in early hours, mirroring US markets. The S&P 500 closed 0.33 per cent higher after recovering from early losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended flat, up 0.08 per cent.

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Nepal, World Bank explore ‘catastrophe bond’ to protect against disaster risks

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Kathmandu, Oct 15: Nepal and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), part of the World Bank Group, have signed a mandate agreement to explore the development of a catastrophe bond that could help the Himalayan nation secure rapid access to funds in the event of a major natural disaster.

The agreement marks the beginning of a collaboration to assess the feasibility and potential structure of a catastrophe bond, under which Nepal could transfer part of its disaster risk to international capital markets and strengthen its financial preparedness for natural disasters, the World Bank said in a statement.

Under the agreement, the World Bank Group Treasury will work with the Nepal government and market participants to evaluate the proposed transaction.

The initiative comes as Nepal seeks to strengthen its capacity to prepare for, withstand and recover from natural disasters in the wake of devastating floods in the Bhotekoshi and downstream Trishuli river basins on August 26. The floods have killed nearly 1,500 people, while more than 5,000 remain unaccounted for, according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority.

Triggered by an avalanche near the Nepal-China border that blocked the river’s flow, the floods swept away several human settlements, a dozen hydropower projects, a solar plant, and several roads and bridges. Physical damage is estimated at 1.66 billion US dollars, according to the World Bank’s Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation report.

According to the World Bank, Nepal is highly vulnerable to earthquakes, floods, landslides and other climate-related hazards, which can cause extensive damage to infrastructure, disrupt economic activities and place considerable pressure on public finances.

A catastrophe bond is a financial instrument that allows governments or other entities to transfer specific disaster risks to investors. Depending on the terms of the bond, investors may lose some or all of their principal if a specified disaster occurs, allowing the funds to be used to support the affected entity.

“Such instruments can provide an alternative source of disaster financing, potentially enabling governments to access funds more quickly than relying solely on budget reallocations or post-disaster assistance,” the World Bank said.

The initiative is part of the World Bank Group’s established catastrophe bond programme, which has helped countries access international capital markets to transfer disaster risks and secure financial protection against natural hazards.

The World Bank helps countries increase their financial resilience to disasters by supporting disaster risk financing programmes and offering contingent financing and insurance solutions.

It also assists countries in designing, developing and implementing comprehensive disaster risk financing strategies.

“A risk financing strategy helps clients determine a balance between retaining risk, for example, through a contingent financing product, and transferring risk, for example, through an insurance product,” the World Bank said.

A range of financial products can be used to address the financial risks of disasters, and the optimal mix of approaches depends on the types of risks faced by a country and the frequency and severity of disaster events, it said.

Developing countries are particularly vulnerable to the economic and fiscal consequences of disasters because of factors such as gaps in insurance coverage, inadequate infrastructure resilience, and the concentration of populations and economic activities in exposed areas.

“Following a major disaster, governments often have to redirect budgetary resources towards emergency response, relief and reconstruction, potentially affecting other development priorities,” the World Bank said.

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