Business
Oil price, US jobs data, rising bond yields likely to drive Indian stock market next week
Mumbai, Sep 6: The Indian stock market is likely to remain sensitive to global cues next week, with crude oil prices, rising bond yields, stronger-than-expected US jobs data and foreign investor flows emerging as key factors that could shape investor sentiment. Renewed tensions between the US and Iran, uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and shifting expectations around US interest rates are expected to keep volatility elevated.
The benchmark indices ended higher on Friday, but surrendered most of their intra-day gains and closed near the day’s lows after the closing auction session (CAS). The Sensex gained 363 points to close at 76,515, while the Nifty rose more than 24 points to finish below the 23,898 mark.
The broader market performance remained mixed, with the Nifty Midcap 100 slipping into negative territory, while the Nifty Smallcap 100 managed to end in the green.
One of the biggest concerns for investors heading into the new week is the renewed rise in crude oil prices. Oil gained around 8 per cent during the week after the US and Iran exchanged strikes following a month-long lull, reviving fears of a supply disruption as the Strait of Hormuz remains shut for oil transit.
The prolonged disruption has also prompted a reassessment of crude price expectations. Citi has raised its average Brent crude price forecast for the third quarter to $86 a barrel from its earlier estimate of $80, citing expectations of a longer-than-anticipated timeline for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Higher oil prices could put additional pressure on inflation and corporate costs in oil-importing economies such as India. Investors will therefore closely monitor developments in the Middle East and any indications of when normal oil shipments through the strategic waterway could resume.
Another major concern is the sharp rise in global bond yields. A bond-market selloff of a scale not seen in decades has pushed yields across several major economies to multi-year highs. Markets are currently dealing with a combination of oil-driven inflation, expectations of tighter monetary policy and deteriorating fiscal conditions.
The rise in crude prices and fuel costs has increased inflationary pressures while also pushing up government borrowing costs globally. At the same time, investors are assessing the possibility that tighter financial conditions could weigh on economic growth if there is no meaningful easing in inflationary pressures.
US monetary policy expectations could add another layer of volatility. A stronger-than-expected US jobs report has brought the possibility of a September interest-rate hike back into focus, creating a difficult policy choice for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh amid pressure from US President Donald Trump for lower borrowing costs.
US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, almost three times the number expected by economists. The labour force participation rate also increased to 61.6 per cent. Despite the larger pool of available workers, the unemployment rate remained at 4.1 per cent.
Business
Sensex, Nifty open flat amid mixed global cues

Domestic equity benchmarks opened on a flat note on Monday tracking mixed global cues and momentum from last week’s gains.
Sensex opened at 74,849.30, up 120.03 points or 0.16 per cent, while Nifty began trading at 23,150.85, up 4.70 points or 0.02 per cent.
Sectorally, Nifty PSU Bank led gains and rose over 1 per cent, followed by Nifty Oil & Gas which surged 0.6 per cent.
In contrast, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty IT and Nifty Chemicals dropped up to 1 per cent.
Market experts said momentum from Nifty’s 2.8 per cent surge last week and good results from banking majors after better-than-expected IT earnings could keep the market resilient.
“However, escalation of tensions in Hormuz and consequent surge in Brent crude to $109 will act as a strong headwind,” according to them.
They further said that attractive large-cap valuations and rupee appreciation turned FII stance slightly positive, though unlikely to sustain at high crude prices. Large-caps outperforming mid and small-caps is likely to continue, with stock-specific action on Q2 results.
For Nifty, immediate support is placed at 22,950–23,000, while resistance is seen at 23,250–23,300, the experts said and added that RSI strengthened to 52.81 above its average of 34.70, while PCR stood at 1.08.
In the previous session on October 16, FIIs turned net buyers after 15 straight sessions of selling, buying equities worth about Rs 1,166 crore, while DIIs ended their 45-session buying streak with net sales of around Rs 3,661 crore.
On commodities, Brent crude traded nearly 2 per cent lower at around $107.76 per barrel, while US WTI declined about 1 per cent to $100.43.
In Asia, markets were mixed. Japan’s Nikkei traded 0.84 per cent lower, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and South Korea’s KOSPI rose up to 0.83 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite fell over 5 per cent.
Business
India-EFTA trade pact opens new opportunities for Norwegian investment across key sectors

India’s strong economic growth trajectory and the implementation of the India-EFTA Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) are creating significant opportunities for Norwegian investors, particularly in manufacturing, renewable energy, infrastructure, financial services and the digital economy, according to industry insights.
With GDP growth projected to remain around 6.5 per cent annually through 2030, India is widely expected to become the world’s third-largest economy by the end of the decade, according to EY India report.
Analysts attribute this outlook to strong domestic consumption, rising investments, ongoing infrastructure development and reforms aimed at improving the ease of doing business.
The India-EFTA TEPA, which came into effect in October 2025, is being viewed as a major milestone in India-Norway economic relations.
The agreement seeks to promote trade liberalisation, facilitate investment flows and deepen cooperation in areas such as innovation, sustainability and advanced technologies.
The pact includes investment commitments of $100 billion over 15 years and is expected to support the creation of one million direct jobs in India, aligning with the country’s broader goals of expanding manufacturing capacity and strengthening its position in global value chains.
Industry experts believe the agreement creates a strong framework for Norwegian companies to expand their presence in India by combining Norway’s expertise in technology, sustainability and capital-intensive industries with India’s large market and growth ambitions.
Several sectors have been identified as priority areas for collaboration, including manufacturing, renewable energy, oil and gas, maritime services, seafood processing, information and communication technology (ICT), fintech and financial services. These industries are expected to benefit from increasing bilateral cooperation under the TEPA framework.
The rapid expansion of India’s digital economy and digital payments ecosystem is also creating opportunities for Norwegian companies seeking exposure to one of the world’s largest and fastest-growing consumer markets.
At the same time, India’s policy measures aimed at attracting foreign investment are expected to provide a supportive environment for long-term investors, as per the report.
Business
Delhi protests put business worth Rs 400 crore at daily risk, exposure may reach Rs 4,000 crore in 10 days: CAIT

Protests in Delhi could put business transactions worth over Rs 400 crore at risk every day, with the potential exposure reaching Rs 4,000 crore over ten days if disruptions persist, Confederation of All India Traders (CAIT) Secretary General and Chandni Chowk MP Praveen Khandelwal said on Sunday.
Expressing concern over the economic impact of prolonged protests, Khandelwal said disruptions to traffic, transportation, customer movement and market accessibility could significantly affect the capital’s commercial activities, particularly during the crucial festive and wedding season.
He clarified that the figures represent indicative estimates of business activity at risk and not verified actual losses.
According to Khandelwal, Delhi’s estimated average daily business turnover stands at approximately Rs 2,200 crore. Even a 10 per cent decline in business activity could affect transactions worth Rs 220 crore daily, while a 15 per cent decline could put Rs 330 crore at risk. If the disruption reduces business activity by 20 per cent, the amount at risk could rise to Rs 440 crore per day.
Based on these estimates, the cumulative exposure could approach Rs 4,000 crore over ten days if disruptions continue at the higher end of the projected range.
Khandelwal emphasised that while the Constitution guarantees citizens the right to freedom of speech and peaceful assembly, traders must also be able to conduct their businesses and earn their livelihoods without avoidable disruptions.
“Delhi is not merely the national capital; it is one of the country’s most important centres of wholesale distribution, retail trade and commercial activity. Its markets connect manufacturers, distributors, retailers and consumers across India. Any prolonged disruption in Delhi therefore has a cascading impact on supply chains, business transactions and livelihoods far beyond the city,” Khandelwal said.
“The right to protest and the right to trade are both integral to a functioning democracy. Protecting one should not mean disregarding the other. The larger public interest demands a responsible approach in which democratic expression, the rule of law, economic activity and the livelihood of millions of people are all duly respected,” Khandelwal noted.
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