Mumbai: Maharashtra’s political stage is once again pulsating with anticipation. Within the next 48 hours, either Devendra Fadnavis or Eknath Shinde is expected to take the oath of office. However, there are several imponderables. While the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) will nominate Fadnavis with eyes shut, Shinde’s claim is buttressed by his remarkable electoral success and coalition dynamics, it gets further reinforced by the caste factor.

The RSS Factor

Fadnavis, a staunch RSS loyalist and the BJP’s golden boy from Nagpur, is the obvious frontrunner. Known for his administrative acumen and clean image, he aligns perfectly with the Sangh’s ideology. For the RSS, Fadnavis symbolizes continuity and trust—qualities vital for navigating Maharashtra’s volatile political terrain. Yet, his path to the CM’s chair isn’t obstacle-free.

The BJP leadership fears that appointing a Brahmin Chief Minister might alienate the electorally critical OBC and Maratha communities. Moreover, sidelining Eknath Shinde could be precarious for the coalition and undo the effort to dismantle Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena.

Stubborn Shinde

Eknath Shinde, who has helmed the government for the past two years, remains unwilling to cede power. His camp credits the alliance’s electoral success to initiatives like the “Mukhyamantri Majhi Ladki Bahin” scheme. Supporters argue that Shinde deserves to retain the top job, with Deepak Kesarkar emphatically stating, “This election was fought under Shinde’s leadership—he deserves the chair.”

A recent rally at Varsha Bungalow saw workers chanting Shinde’s name, almost egging him to hold his nerve and ground. For the BJP, alienating Shinde could create unnecessary irritants, which could put in jeopardy the crucial BMC trophy – Maharashtra’s Crown Jewel.

BMC Trophy

The BMC elections are the hidden undercurrent driving this power struggle. With an annual budget exceeding Rs 59,000 crore, control of the civic body is a political and financial lifeline. Wresting it from UBT Sena is a top priority for the BJP. Shinde’s understanding of the workings of UBT Sena and his faction’s stronghold in Mumbai — bolstered by his Maratha identity — could be invaluable in achieving this goal. Retaining Shinde as CM, at least temporarily, might be a calculated move to wrest control of the BMC. However, this strategy is fraught with risks. Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction reportedly finds Fadnavis a more dependable ally, hinting at potential strains within the alliance if Shinde remains at the helm.

A Complex Balancing Act

Balancing Act For the BJP, the choice isn’t just about naming the next Chief Minister. It’s a complex balancing act—appeasing the RSS, retaining Shinde’s loyalty, maintaining coalition harmony, and addressing caste dynamics. Both Shinde and Fadnavis have reportedly been summoned to Delhi for final consultations with Amit Shah and the BJP leadership. Changing the CM now could help showcase the BJP as a decisive, meritocratic party. But it risks undermining its image as a reliable coalition partner. With the BMC elections on the horizon, any perception of instability could prove politically costly.

Road Ahead the BJP faces a pivotal decision: prioritize long-term stability and ideological alignment with Fadnavis, or opt for short-term pragmatism by keeping Shinde in power. The RSS’s preference for Fadnavis might tip the scales, but sidelining Shinde could backfire. A potential compromise—keeping Shinde as CM while giving Fadnavis a stronger behind-thescenes role—could provide a temporary resolution. However, such a formula would require meticulous management to avoid factional rifts.

Final Countdown As the swearing-in approaches, the suspense remains pulsating. In a state where caste, coalition politics, and civic ambitions intersect, the identity of the next Chief Minister is far from a foregone conclusion. Whether it’s Fadnavis, the Sangh’s favorite, or Shinde, the Maratha tactician, Maharashtra is poised for another dramatic twist. One thing is certain: in this game of thrones, “lock kiya jaye” won’t come easy.