With most of the exit polls predicting a majority for the Mahayuti led by the BJP, the saffron party is preparing to occupy a central position post the results which will be declared on Saturday. The main question is who will be the BJP’s candidate for chief ministership. The party had assiduously avoided projecting anyone as the CM candidate and has preferred to wait for the results to be declared. However, considerable significance is assigned to Fadnavis’ meeting with RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat at the Sangh’s headquarters in Mahal, Nagpur, on Thursday.  Officially it is being said Fadnavis called on Bhagwat to thank for the massive voter mobilisation that the Sangh Parivar did during the assembly poll of November 20. 

Sources in the BJP told that in June, 2022 the party made a big blunder in agreeing to have Eknath Shinde, the rebel Shiv Sena leader, as the CM. Fadnavis (54) had played a crucial role behind the scenes in vertically splitting the Shiv Sena and pulling down the Uddhav Thackeray government. He staged a coup right under the nose of Thackeray by weaning  away Shinde and his pack of 36 MLAs away from Uddhav Thackeray.  For all his efforts, it was widely assumed in BJP circles that Fadnavis would be rewarded with the CM’s post, especially since the party had the maximum number of MLAs at 105.  

However, the cadres and Fadnavis himself was stunned when the BJP high command wanted Shinde to be the CM.  In fact, Fadnavis publicly made his disappointment public by asserting that he was not interested in joining the Shinde-led government. It required a lot of cajoling from PM Modi and home minister Amit Shah to get him to work under Shinde. 

The central leadership’s calculation was that by anointing Shinde as the CM the Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray would be politically emaciated. However, the past two years’ experience has proved the BJP central leaderships’ calculations wrong. The Shiv Sena (UBT) is not only strong but in fact put up a rather impressive performance in the Lok Sabha elections early this year at the cost of the BJP.

Several persons in the BJP are saying, in retrospect, that had Fadnavis been made the CM after the eclipse of the MVA government led by Thackeray the party would have politically become stronger and done well in the LS polls. “We hope that the central leadership of our party will learn a lesson from the mistakes committed by it in the past and this time around recommend Fadnavis for the CM’s post. He has already served as CM from 2014 to 2019 and acquitted himself well as a good administrator,” a senior BJP leader observed.

There are a few other contenders for the CM’s post like Pankaja Munde, Chandrakant Patil and Vinod Tawde. But none of them have the political stature of Fadnavis who is keen on working only in Maharashtra. The only minus point is that he belongs to the Brahmin caste which is traditionally distrusted by the Marathas. But then it was Fadnavis who took the initiative to pass a law providing for reservation for Marathas. 

All these calculations are based on the surmise that the psephologists have got it right this time around vis-a-vis the assembly poll outcome. Also, the increase in voting percentage is expected to help the BJP.  However, the BJP has kept a Plan B ready lest its calculations go awry. The party is not averse to taking the help of Sharad Pawar if the Mahayuti falls short of numbers.  The Central government has already put tremendous pressure on Pawar’s daughter Supriya Sule in the Rs 250 cr bitcoin case. It might politically weaponise the case to make Pawar fall in line. It may even agree to accommodate Supriya as the deputy CM.

It may be recalled that Pawar, for all his secular posturings, has as early as 1978 joined hands with the Janata Party (of which the major component was the Bharatiya Jana Sangh) to become the CM. More recently, he was part of the plot to let his nephew Ajit Pawar join hands with the BJP to form a government in November, 2019. Also, industrialist Gautam Adani is a common link between Pawar Sr and the BJP.