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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here’s What Exit Polls Have To Say

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Maharashtra Assembly Elections 2024: Will Mahayuti Secure Clean Sweep? Here's What Exit Polls Have To Say

Mumbai: The 2024 Maharashtra Assembly elections have captured the nation’s attention, with exit polls projecting a potential victory for the ruling BJP-led Mahayuti alliance. If these predictions hold, the implications could ripple far beyond the state, reshaping political alliances and strategies.

Of the nine exit polls released after Wednesday’s polling, six forecast a clear majority for the Mahayuti, while two favor the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The remaining survey predicts a hung assembly, adding intrigue to an already charged political atmosphere.

Exit Polls

Surveys conducted by Poll Diary, Chanakya Strategies, Matriz, People Pulse, P-Marg, and CNX indicate that the Mahayuti will secure a comfortable majority, with seat projections ranging from 122 10 195. In contrast, SAS Group and Electoral Age give the edge to the MVA, projecting between 147 and 155 seats. Lok Shahi Marathi-Rudra stands apart, suggesting a hung assembly with both alliances within striking distance of forming the government. Poll Diary predicts the Mahayuti winning between 122 and 180 seats, with BJP emerging as the single largest party with 77-108 seats.

Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena faction is expected to secure 27-50 seats, while Deputy Chief Minister Ajit Pawar’s NCP faction might claim 18-28. On the other hand, the MVA could win 69-121 seats, with Congress (28-47), Shiv Sena (UBT) (16-35), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP (25-39) splitting the tally. Chanakya Strategies suggests the BJP crossing 90 seats, while Shinde’s Sena and Pawar’s NCP faction may win 48 and 22 seats, respectively. The MVA’s Congress faction could secure 63 seats, Thack- erays Sena 35, and Pawar’s NCP around 40.

The CNX survey provides one of the highest estimates for Mahayuti, predicting 160–179 seats against the MVA’s 110–119. Conversely, the SAS Group and Electoral Age buck the trend, forecasting an MVA majority, with Congress as the dominant party in its fold. The Maharashtra elections have been characterized by shifting political allegiances and a highly polarized campaign.

Impact Of Splits

Splits in both the Shiv Sena and the NCP have significantly influenced the electoral landscape, with the BJP deftly maneuvering to capitalize on these divisions. Ajit Pawar’s defection from Sharad Pawar’s NCP has bolstered the Mahayuti’s urban and semi-urban appeal, while Eknath Shinde’s leadership has sought to consolidate rural and middle-class votes. The BJP’s campaign has centered on economic stability and infrastructure development, positioning itself as a harbinger of continuity and growth. On the other hand, the MVA, comprising the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and Sharad Pawar’s NCP faction, has tried to portray itself as a viable alternative, focusing on farmer distress, unemployment, and regional disparities. However, internal fractures and an inability to present a united front have undermined its appeal in crucial swing regions.

The 58.43% voter turnout, slightly lower than previous polls, indicates heightened interest in rural constituencies, traditionally seen as swing zones. The areas often determine the final outcome, and Mahayuti’s robust rural outreach could prove decisive. Exit polls suggest urban areas, particularly Mumbai and Pune, have leaned towards the BJP-led alliance, reflecting its resonance with middle-class and youth voters. However, the MVA has found support in agrarian districts, where anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction with government schemes are palpable. A decisive victory for the Mahayuti would bolster the BJP’s momentum ahead of the general elections, reaffirming its dominance in India’s political heartland.

A Key Battleground

Maharashtra, with its 48 parliamentary seats, is a key battleground for any national coalition, and a BJP-led sweep in the assembly could significantly influence Lok Sabha dynamics. Moreover, a Mahayuti win could further marginalize opposition parties like Congress and the NCP, which are already struggling to remain cohesive. It would also validate the BJP’s strategy of co-opting regional leaders like Ajit Pawar and Shinde, signaling a shift in how regional coalitions are formed and sustained. For the MVA, a strong performance could reinvigorate its standing as a formidable opposition bloc. It would demonstrate that voter dissatisfaction with the BJP’s policies can translate into tangible electoral gains, energizing anti-BJP forces across India.

All Eyes On The Final Tally

As counting day approaches on November 23, all eyes will be on the final tally. If the Mahayuti secures a decisive majority, it will not only cement the BJP’s position in Maharashtra but also reshape the national political landscape. Conversely, a surprise victory for the MVA or a hung assembly could pave the way for post-poll alliances, injecting further uncertainty into the political narrative. Ultimately, the Maharashtra elections have underscored the dynamic interplay of local and national politics, offering a preview of the strategies and alliances that will define India’s electoral future.

Maharashtra

Bangur Nagar: Drugs worth ₹21 crore seized, two accused arrested.

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On November 2, at 20:00 hours, officers and personnel from the Anti-Narcotics Cell (ANC) team of the Bangur Nagar Police Station were patrolling Link Road in Goregaon West, Mumbai. Near Shivam Society on the southbound side of Link Road, they stopped an individual—Phul Chandra Ishwar Dayal Kashyap, aged 38, a resident of Madh Village, Malad West, Mumbai (originally from Uttar Pradesh)—on the basis of suspicion and conducted a search. During the search, 5.97 grams of cocaine, with an estimated value of ₹2,98,500, was recovered from his possession and seized in the presence of witnesses (as documented in a panchnama).

Suspecting that the accused might be in possession of a larger quantity of narcotics, a search of his residence was conducted. In the early hours of November 3, at 03:02 AM, a total of 4,221 grams of cocaine—with an estimated value of ₹21,10,50,000 (twenty-one crore, ten lakh, fifty thousand rupees)—was discovered at his home in Madh Village, Malad West. This was seized, and a detailed panchnama of the house search was prepared. Consequently, a case (Crime No. 1039/2026) was registered against the individual at the Bangur Nagar Police Station under Sections 8(c) and 21(c) of the NDPS Act, 1985. During the interrogation regarding the seized narcotics, the suspect identified an accomplice—Mujahid Ali, a resident of Madhya Pradesh—as having been involved in the commission of the crime. Consequently, the police team has arrested Mujahid Ali as part of the ongoing investigation. To date, a total of 4,226.97 grams of cocaine, valued at Rs 21,13,48,500 (twenty-one crore, thirteen lakh, forty-eight thousand, five hundred rupees), has been seized in connection with this case.

Further investigation is underway to determine the source of the seized cocaine, the intended recipients, and the identities of any other individuals who may have assisted the two suspects in this illicit activity.
This operation was carried out by DCP Purushottam Karad, under the directives of Police Commissioner Deven Bharti.

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Maharashtra

Aaditya Thackeray slams Centre over pollution crisis; demands PM-led ‘council of climate change’

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Ahead of Mumbai hosting the prestigious Earthshot Prize Summit and Awards, Shiv Sena (UBT) leader and former Maharashtra Environment Minister Aaditya Thackeray on Thursday launched a sharp attack on the Union government, accusing it of “data fudging,” greenwashing, and failing to provide citizens with the necessities of clean air, water, and food.

Highlighting that almost all of the world’s most polluted cities are currently in India, Thackeray questioned the central regime’s commitment to both international climate treaties and domestic governance.

His remarks come at a critical juncture on the global environmental calendar, with the COP31 climate summit underway in Türkiye and Mumbai preparing to host the Earthshot Prize followed by Mumbai Climate Week.

Thackeray pointed out that a lack of data integrity has masked India’s true standing on global climate indices, masking a reality that is far worse than official rankings suggest.

He noted that political apathy toward the environmental crisis is forcing citizens to protest, and in some cases, migrate in search of basic living standards.

“Most of those who pay direct taxes, and all of those who pay indirect taxes, hoping for these basics, have to spend again on air and water purifiers and sources of food,” Thackeray stated, warning that the deteriorating environment is no longer just a public health hazard, but an economic threat.

He added that businesses and organisations are also relocating out of polluted regions, directly resulting in job losses.

Reiterating a demand he has previously made to the Centre, Thackeray proposed the immediate establishment of a Council of Climate Change, modelled on the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council, to institutionalise federal cooperation on environmental issues.

The Council should be headed by the Prime Minister and include all State Ministers for Forest and Environment, alongside relevant Union Ministries such as Urban and Rural Development, Energy, Agriculture, Industry, and Roads. The body would meet quarterly to review verified data, targets, and real-time progress, he said.

He further stated that parallel State Councils of Climate Change should be headed by respective Chief Ministers, bringing together all interlinked government departments to track regional climate action plans.

Drawing from his tenure when Maharashtra drafted Climate Action Plans for Mumbai and several other cities, Thackeray insisted that such plans must be formulated and neutrally audited by independent, internationally reputed organisations in a transparent manner.

Reflecting on his experience leading Maharashtra’s Environment and Climate Change portfolio, Thackeray emphasised that environmental governance intersects with nearly every government department and dictates the overall quality of life.

Warning that India stands at a defining threshold regarding its population and demographic dividend, he urged the government to treat climate action as an urgent economic and strategic necessity.

“Timely climate action can be a huge opportunity that, if missed, can be a huge risk socially, politically, economically and in terms of national security,” he concluded.

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Maharashtra

Mumbai Kurla Hallow Bridge Firing: Two Accused Arrested, Tension Continues.

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In connection with a shooting and murder case at the McDonald Compound near Halav Bridge in Kurla, Mumbai, the police have claimed the arrest of two assailants, one of whom is a minor. The accused, Nepal Pawar, carried out the crime alongside a minor associate. Both were taken into custody in the Powai area and subsequently placed under formal arrest. Investigating Officer Dipali Kulkarni led her team, utilizing technical investigative methods, which ultimately resulted in the apprehension of the suspects. Furthermore, the weapon used in the crime—a locally-made firearm—was recovered; the accused had dismantled it after the shooting and discarded the various parts in different locations. The police have stated that the murder stemmed from a personal vendetta, and the investigation is currently focused on this motive. While two individuals have been arrested, the police are continuing to investigate who else may have assisted in the execution of the shooting and the source from which the weapon was obtained. Following the arrests, the police have claimed to have solved the case. It is worth noting that, in the aftermath of the shooting, a protest took place outside the local police station, where demonstrators expressed their outrage and demanded the immediate arrest of the perpetrators. The police had formed several teams to resolve the case, which eventually led to this breakthrough. Following the daylight shooting, Additional Commissioner (East Region) Dhananjay Kulkarni and DCP Ganesh Shinde inspected the crime scene, while a forensic team collected evidence. The team was active on the ground, which led to the swift arrest of the suspects. This was the second shooting incident within six months; maintaining law and order posed a significant challenge for the police, yet they proved that no task is impossible once a firm resolve is made. A member of this same family had been targeted in a previous shooting as well. Following the murders of two individuals from the same family within a six-month span, the situation had become tense.

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