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India’s trend GDP growth to move closer to 6.5-7 pc in FY25: Crisil

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New Delhi, Dec 16: The main macro drivers remain healthy and India’s GDP growth is likely to move closer to the trend growth of 6.5-7 per cent this fiscal, a Crisil Insight report said on Monday.

Trend GDP growth is the average sustainable rate of economic growth over time.

Private consumption growth in the country has fared better than last year in the first half of the current fiscal (FY25).

“While investment growth has moderated relative to last year, its share of GDP remains higher than the pre-pandemic decade,” the report mentioned.

Technical factors contributed to an above-trend GDP growth last year. They are expected to have a moderating effect on GDP growth this current fiscal as they normalise.

“GDP growth had averaged 6.6 per cent in the pre-pandemic decade. This fiscal is likely to see GDP growth move closer to trend growth of 6.5-7 per cent,” according to the report.

It is worth noting that the main macro drivers of growth remain healthy. Private consumption grew 6.7 per cent on average in the first half of this fiscal, compared with 4.1 per cent in the corresponding period last year. Its share in GDP at 56.3 per cent this fiscal has been higher than 56.1 per cent in the pre-pandemic decade.

The Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation has also been normalising. The last fiscal saw a decline in WPI inflation to -0.7 per cent.

This fiscal WPI inflation has averaged 2.7 per cent, closer to the pre-pandemic 5-year average of 3.2 per cent. In November, India’s annual rate of inflation based on WPI eased to 1.89 per cent, compared to 2.36 per cent in October, as the rise in food prices slowed during the month with the fresh crop arriving in the market.

“We expect improving consumption demand to drive growth momentum this fiscal. In particular, agriculture and rural demand are poised to improve after a healthy monsoon. This means growth will be more balanced this fiscal, even if it is lower than last year,” said the Crisil report.

Business

Equity markets open flat amid gains in crude oil prices

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New Delhi, Aug 11: Domestic equity markets opened flat on Tuesday after surge in crude oil prices, while information technology and consumer durables stocks gained offset by weakness in banking and financial counters.

Sensex opened 32.67 points or 0.04 per cent lower at 78,509.77, while Nifty started the session declining 8.70 points or 0.04 per cent at 24,575.10.

Sector-wise, Nifty MidSmall IT & Telecom rose 0.73 per cent, Nifty Consumer Durables gained 0.66 per cent and Nifty IT advanced 0.63 per cent. Real estate, auto and pharmaceutical shares also traded in positive territory.

On the other hand, banking stocks were under pressure as Nifty Private Bank fell 0.64 per cent and Nifty PSU Bank declined 0.62 per cent.

Market experts said rising crude oil prices remained an irritant for equities, although improving domestic fundamentals, better-than-expected June-quarter earnings and stability in the rupee were providing support.

“Rising Brent crude price continues to be an irritant for the market even as other fundamentals exhibit strength,” they said, adding that foreign institutional investors turning buyers, encouraged by better-than-expected Q1 results and rupee stability, could keep the market resilient with a slight upward bias.

According to analysts, robust domestic consumption could sustain earnings growth through FY27, while large FCNR (B) inflows may support the rupee and, in turn, facilitate further foreign investor inflows.

Foreign investors are also rotating capital away from the so-called ‘chip trade’ in South Korea and Taiwan and compensating for their under-ownership of Indian equities, the experts said.

Interestingly, such flows are being directed towards relatively expensive sectors such as telecom, renewable energy, capital goods and pharmaceuticals rather than attractively valued banking majors, they said.

From a technical perspective, analysts see immediate support for the Nifty in the 24,400-24,450 zone and resistance at 24,750-24,800. Holding above the support zone could keep the index’s sideways-to-positive bias intact, with buying interest likely to emerge on dips. A decisive break above 24,750-24,800 could improve momentum and provide a fresh directional trigger.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, rose 0.41 per cent to $88.08 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude gained 0.47 per cent to $82.52 a barrel.

Asian markets were mixed in early trade. Japan’s Nikkei rose around 2 per cent and South Korea’s KOSPI gained more than 1 per cent, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined 0.6 per cent.

US equities ended marginally lower on Monday, with the S&P 500 declining 0.06 per cent and the Nasdaq falling 0.32 per cent.

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Customs duty on gold, silver, platinum tops Rs 10,460 crore since duty hike

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New Delhi : The government has collected Rs 10,463 crore in customs duty from imports of gold, silver and platinum between May 13 and August 2 following the increase in import duties on the precious metals, Parliament was informed on Monday.

In a written reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Minister of State for Finance Pankaj Chaudhary said customs duty collections during the period stood at Rs 10,040 crore on gold, Rs 328 crore on silver and Rs 95 crore on platinum.

The combined customs duty collection from the three precious metals thus amounted to Rs 10,463 crore during the period.

With effect from May 13, the government had increased the import duty on gold and silver to 15 per cent from 6 per cent, while the duty on platinum was raised to 15.4 per cent from 6.4 per cent.

Moreover, consequential changes were also made to duties on related items, including gold and silver dore, coins and findings.

Chaudhary said the government had taken the decision to curb discretionary imports and prioritise foreign exchange for essential imports such as crude oil, fertilisers, industrial raw materials and capital goods.

The duty hike came against the backdrop of rising global uncertainties, including the conflict in West Asia and the effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which had pushed up prices of crude oil as well as food and fertiliser imports.

The minister also informed the House that enforcement agencies seized 161 kg of smuggled gold and arrested 116 persons between May 13 and June 30.

India is the world’s second-largest consumer of gold after China with imports largely driven by demand from the jewellery sector.

Gold imports account for a significant outflow of foreign exchange and are closely monitored by policymakers from a balance-of-payments perspective.

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TRAI mandates 1601-series numbers for service calls from utilities, logistics firms

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New Delhi : The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Monday directed telecom operators to begin onboarding entities from select non-financial sectors onto the new 1601-series numbering framework for transactional and service voice calls extending a system already in use by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector.

After this decision, consumers can identify genuine service and transactional calls and curb impersonation and fraud carried out through regular 10-digit mobile numbers.

In addition, TRAI said it has issued directions on the use of the 1601-series numbers for entities in sectors other than BFSI and government organisations which currently use the 1600-series numbering framework.

The authority also noted that the widespread adoption of 1600-series numbers by BFSI entities has provided valuable operational experience for expanding the trusted numbering framework to other sectors.

Under the first phase of implementation, the 1601-series will be allotted to entities in the utilities sector, including electricity distribution companies, water utilities, city gas distribution companies, LPG distributors and other utility service providers.

The logistics and courier sector has also been included in Phase-I, covering courier companies, express logistics firms, parcel delivery service providers as well as freight and logistics operators involved in consignments delivery.

TRAI said the Department of Telecommunications (DoT) has allocated the 1601-series for such calls and telecom service providers (TSPs) have been directed to complete migration and onboarding of eligible entities covered under Phase-I within 90 days from the date of the order.

The regulator further noted that 1601-series numbers would be allocated directly to eligible entities rather than intermediaries or aggregators following verification by telecom operators.

“The distinct numbering identity will enable the consumers to easily identify legitimate service and transactional calls, thereby strengthening trust in such voice-based communications,” the regulator said.

Additionally, TRAI clarified that the 1601-series numbers cannot be used for promotional voice calls by any entity.

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