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India-US trade deal, oil prices and geopolitical tensions to guide D-Street next week

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Mumbai, June 28: After ending the holiday-shortened week on a positive note, Dalal Street is likely to take cues from progress in the proposed India-US trade agreement, developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and foreign investor activity in the coming week.

Lower oil prices and improving risk sentiment helped benchmark indices post modest gains during the last week.

For the week, the Sensex advanced 0.39 per cent to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty gained 0.18 per cent to settle at 24,056.

A sharp decline in crude oil prices emerged as the biggest positive trigger for the market. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal and tensions in West Asia showing signs of easing, Brent crude prices retreated to near pre-conflict levels.

The decline in oil prices reduced concerns over imported inflation, the current account deficit and rising input costs for Indian companies.

Investor sentiment also improved amid growing expectations of an India-US trade agreement. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India and the United States are close to concluding a trade deal following discussions with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Market participants view the proposed agreement as an important step toward strengthening bilateral economic ties and boosting trade and investment flows.

At the same time, geopolitical developments in West Asia continued to remain on investors’ radar. The United States carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, an incident that US President Donald Trump described as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Earlier, a vessel near the coast of Oman was reportedly struck by a projectile, highlighting continuing tensions in the region despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Crude oil prices fell more than 3 per cent on Friday and were headed for sharp weekly losses as concerns over supply disruptions eased. The continued movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz helped calm markets and reduced fears of a major supply shock.

Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened during the week, supported by lower crude oil prices and signs of improving foreign portfolio inflows. However, investors remained cautious over the possibility of further interest rate actions by the US Federal Reserve, which could influence global capital flows.

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Centre’s expenditure on 1,847 big infra projects touches Rs 21.97 lakh crore

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New Delhi: The expenditure on India’s 1,847 major infrastructure projects, currently being implemented by the Centre, has reached Rs 21.97 lakh crore (as of June 2026), which represents over 54 per cent of the total investment of Rs 40.54 lakh crore earmarked for these mega projects, reflecting steady progress in the pace of work, according to a factsheet issued by the government on Monday.

Many projects have reached advanced stages of completion, with around 709 projects exceeding 80 per cent physical progress, while another 337 projects have passed 80 per cent of financial completion, the factsheet states.

The transport and logistics sector leads with the 1,341 projects worth Rs 22.32 lakh crore, reflecting the focus on connectivity.

These projects are playing a crucial role in pushing up the country’s economic growth rate and creating more jobs.

Efficient monitoring of infrastructure projects is being carried out through PAIMANA (Project Assessment, Infrastructure Monitoring and Analytics for Nation-Building) digital platform. Developed by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), PAIMANA is used for monitoring ongoing Central Sector infrastructure projects costing Rs 150 crore or more.

In addition to strengthening project monitoring, PAIMANA has expanded its role to support infrastructure performance monitoring through a dedicated Performance Monitoring Dashboard which was launched on April 16, 2026.

The Performance Monitoring Dashboard brings together performance indicators across key infrastructure sectors in a unified digital platform. The indicators are compiled from official data provided by the concerned Ministries and Departments and are updated periodically based on the latest available information.

A detailed indicator framework spans six infrastructure sub-sectors. These are Power, Civil Aviation, Telecommunications, Railways, Roads, and Ports, Shipping and Waterways.

The Performance Monitoring Dashboard has now been expanded to 165 indicators. This expansion includes the addition of 54 new indicators, significantly enhancing the comprehensiveness of infrastructure performance monitoring.

A single digital interface allows monitoring of performance sector by sector. It offers interactive visualisation and time-series analysis for policymakers, researchers and stakeholders.

A centralised dashboard delivers one cross-sector view of infrastructure sectors. This capability deepens inter-sectoral analysis.

The current framework gauges sectoral performance through growth rates. It reviews year-on-year, month-on-month and cumulative growth, targets and capacity utilisation in chosen sectors, the official statement added.

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Maharashtra to raise milk prices by Rs 2 per litre from Aug 11

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Mumbai, Aug 9: Milk prices in Maharashtra will increase by Rs 2 per litre for both cow and buffalo milk from August 11 after the Milk Producers and Processors Welfare Association decided to revise retail rates, a move that is expected to impact consumers across the state.

The price hike comes amid ongoing debates over milk pricing and efforts to balance the interests of dairy farmers with those of consumers facing rising household expenses.

Producers and processors have argued that higher procurement and operational costs have necessitated the increase.

The development follows the Centre’s recent clarification that it has no proposal to introduce a Minimum Support Price (MSP) for milk, maintaining that prices will continue to be determined by cooperatives and private dairies based on prevailing market conditions.

In a written reply to a starred question in the Lok Sabha last month, Fisheries, Animal Husbandry and Dairying Minister Rajiv Ranjan Singh, also known as Lalan Singh, said milk pricing remains a market-driven process and that the government is not considering an MSP mechanism for the sector.

The minister said the government is implementing a range of measures aimed at safeguarding dairy farmers’ interests, stabilising milk prices, protecting consumers and strengthening quality monitoring across the dairy value chain.

According to the government, efforts are underway to bring more producers into the organised dairy sector.

As of March 2026, a total of 36,283 new village-level Dairy Cooperative Societies had been established, while 31,150 existing societies had been strengthened.

The government also created milk chilling capacity of 168 lakh litres per day and distributed 76,748 milk quality testing devices across the country.

In addition, projects with a combined milk processing and value-addition capacity of 418 lakh litres per day have been approved to enhance infrastructure and improve efficiency in the dairy sector.

The government highlighted the strong growth in India’s milk production over the past decade.

Milk output rose to 248 million metric tonnes in 2024-25 from 146 million metric tonnes in 2014-15, registering an increase of about 69 per cent.

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Q1 results, inflation, US-Iran tensions among key triggers likely to drive stock market next week

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Mumbai, Aug 9: Indian stock markets are likely to remain volatile next week as investors track a busy earnings calendar, the release of July retail inflation data, movements in crude oil prices, geopolitical developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and foreign institutional investor (FII) flows.

Indian equities ended the week on a positive note despite heightened volatility, with investors assessing the implementation of the new Closing Auction Session (CAS) framework for F&O stocks, the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision and persistent geopolitical uncertainties.

The Sensex gained 0.52 per cent over the week to close at 78,499.17, while the Nifty rose 0.77 per cent to finish at 24,570.65.

A key focus for investors next week will be the ongoing Q1 FY27 earnings season. Several prominent companies are scheduled to announce their April-June quarter results.

Markets will also react to India’s July retail inflation data, which is scheduled to be released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on August 12.

Geopolitical developments, particularly those involving the US, Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, will remain another major market trigger.

Iran has reportedly put forward fresh conditions for reopening the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, while the UAE has reported that one of its vessels was targeted by an Iranian missile.

Any further escalation in geopolitical tensions or delays in reopening the shipping route could put additional pressure on crude prices.

FII activity will also remain on investors’ radar. Foreign institutional investors turned net buyers of Indian equities on Friday, snapping their brief selling streak.

According to provisional exchange data, FIIs purchased shares worth Rs 12,941.31 crore and sold equities worth Rs 12,461.07 crore, resulting in a net inflow of Rs 480.24 crore.

Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) continued to support the market, recording a net inflow of Rs 235.56 crore on Friday. DIIs bought equities worth Rs 15,679.58 crore and sold shares worth Rs 15,444.02 crore.

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