Business
India-US trade deal, oil prices and geopolitical tensions to guide D-Street next week
Mumbai, June 28: After ending the holiday-shortened week on a positive note, Dalal Street is likely to take cues from progress in the proposed India-US trade agreement, developments in the Middle East conflict, crude oil prices and foreign investor activity in the coming week.
Lower oil prices and improving risk sentiment helped benchmark indices post modest gains during the last week.
For the week, the Sensex advanced 0.39 per cent to close at 77,100.47, while the Nifty gained 0.18 per cent to settle at 24,056.
A sharp decline in crude oil prices emerged as the biggest positive trigger for the market. With tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returning to normal and tensions in West Asia showing signs of easing, Brent crude prices retreated to near pre-conflict levels.
The decline in oil prices reduced concerns over imported inflation, the current account deficit and rising input costs for Indian companies.
Investor sentiment also improved amid growing expectations of an India-US trade agreement. Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said India and the United States are close to concluding a trade deal following discussions with US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Market participants view the proposed agreement as an important step toward strengthening bilateral economic ties and boosting trade and investment flows.
At the same time, geopolitical developments in West Asia continued to remain on investors’ radar. The United States carried out strikes on Iran after a drone attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz, an incident that US President Donald Trump described as a violation of the ceasefire agreement. Earlier, a vessel near the coast of Oman was reportedly struck by a projectile, highlighting continuing tensions in the region despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Crude oil prices fell more than 3 per cent on Friday and were headed for sharp weekly losses as concerns over supply disruptions eased. The continued movement of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz helped calm markets and reduced fears of a major supply shock.
Meanwhile, the Indian rupee strengthened during the week, supported by lower crude oil prices and signs of improving foreign portfolio inflows. However, investors remained cautious over the possibility of further interest rate actions by the US Federal Reserve, which could influence global capital flows.
Business
Govt rejects concerns over CBG price hike, says impact on CNG, PNG consumers will be negligible

New Delhi, Aug 29: The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas on Saturday rejected concerns that the revised price of Compressed Biogas (CBG) under the GOBARdhan Scheme could place a significant additional burden on CNG and household PNG consumers, saying the assessment is based on inconsistent assumptions.
The ministry said the existing pricing mechanism links the price paid to CBG producers to 85 per cent of the retail selling price of CNG. Based on the latest revision, this translates into a CBG procurement price of around Rs 1,478 per MMBtu.
Under the revised GOBARdhan framework, the CBG procurement price has been fixed at Rs 2,110 per MMBtu, representing an increase of around 43 per cent over the prevailing price. However, the ministry clarified that this is the procurement price paid to CBG producers and is not the price directly paid by CNG or household PNG consumers.
The government will provide affordability support of Rs 10 per kg of CBG, equivalent to approximately Rs 215 per MMBtu for CBG containing 95 per cent methane. This support will be funded by the government and will reduce the amount that needs to be recovered through gas consumers.
After accounting for the government support, the effective CBG cost to be recovered through the gas consumer base would be around Rs 1,895 per MMBtu, compared with the prevailing effective price of Rs 1,478 per MMBtu. This translates into an effective increase of approximately 28 per cent, significantly lower than the headline increase in the procurement price.
The ministry further clarified that CBG is not sold to City Gas Distribution (CGD) entities at its procurement price. Instead, it is pooled with other domestically produced natural gas, with the cost distributed across the applicable domestic gas pool.
Under the earlier framework, the cost of CBG was spread only across the limited quantity of Administered Price Mechanism (APM) gas allocated to the CNG transport and domestic PNG segments. Under the new framework, however, the net cost of CBG will be distributed across a domestic gas base that is approximately 2.5 to three times larger than the earlier base.
Business
Ex-mill sugar prices fall 20 per cent, retail prices too start declining: Govt

New Delhi, Aug 28: Ex-mill sugar prices in India have declined by around 20 per cent, while retail sugar prices have also started coming down, and given the normal transmission of changes through the supply chain, retail prices are expected to follow the downward movement in prices shortly, the Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution said on Friday.
The government has been closely monitoring sugar prices, stocks and movement across the country and has taken a series of proactive measures to ensure that the benefit of adequate availability reaches consumers. The downward trend in ex-mill and retail prices reflects that the sharp spike in prices witnessed recently was primarily on account of hoarding and speculation, although the country carries adequate stocks of sugar, the ministry statement said.
A nationwide drive for physical verification of sugar stocks at mills has reaffirmed the comfortable availability position. In several cases, sugar mills were found to be holding stocks higher than those declared in their monthly returns submitted to the government. The verification exercise has established that there is no shortage of sugar in the country and there is no justification for panic buying or excessive stocking, it said.
In some cases, sugar mills were also found to be resorting to “short selling”, which means selling less sugar than the quantity allocated to them under the monthly quota. Such practices tend to unnecessarily constrain market supplies despite adequate physical stocks, the statement said.
The government has also observed that, in certain cases, sugar sold by mills at the beginning of the month was being dispatched or lifted by buyers only towards the end of the month. This practice contributed to artificial scarcity in the market. To address such issues and ensure that sugar reaches the market in a timely manner, the government has decided to introduce a fortnightly sugar allocation system from September, replacing the existing monthly quota system. Under the fortnightly quota, mills will be required to sell at least 40 per cent of the allocation in the first week and the remaining quantity in the succeeding week.
Sugar mills have already been directed to ensure that sugar sold is dispatched from the mill within seven days of sale. The combination of fortnightly quota allocation and mandatory dispatch within seven days will significantly improve the movement of sugar through the supply chain. It will ensure that sugar moves quickly from mills to dealers and ultimately to consumers, while discouraging unnecessary accumulation and speculative holding of stocks. Bulk consumers of sugar have also been advised not to accumulate stocks in excess of their operational requirements.
Sugarcane crushing for the new season will also commence from October 15, and it is expected that more than 10 LMT of sugar will be produced during the month. The government has also permitted sugar mills to sell sugar produced during October without restriction, ensuring that new-season production becomes available in the domestic market at the earliest. Sugar production is expected to be around 45 LMT in November, providing substantial additional supplies for domestic consumption, the statement added.
Business
Gold prices fall for 4th straight session, MCX rate down Rs 5,318 in four days

Mumbai, Aug 28: Gold prices in India continued their downward trend on Friday, extending losses for the fourth consecutive trading session amid sustained selling pressure in the precious metal.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for October delivery declined by Rs 896, or 0.56 per cent, to trade at Rs 1,58,100 per 10 grams. During the session, prices fell as much as 0.68 per cent, or Rs 1,085, to touch an intraday low of Rs 1,57,911 per 10 grams.
With Friday’s decline, gold prices have fallen by Rs 5,318, or 3.25 per cent, over the past four trading sessions on the MCX, reflecting continued pressure on the yellow metal.
In the international market, gold prices also remained under pressure as investors awaited a speech by US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium. Market participants are closely watching signals from the US central bank on the future course of interest rates, which could influence demand for gold.
Spot gold declined 0.5 per cent to $4,576.30 an ounce after touching a more than three-month high earlier this week. US gold futures were also down 0.8 per cent at $4,629 an ounce.
Experts said that the recent weakness in gold prices comes after a strong rally earlier in the week, with investors now assessing the outlook for US monetary policy and its potential impact on the dollar, bond yields and demand for the safe-haven asset.
“Immediate resistance is at Rs 1,59,500 – Rs 1,60,000, followed by Rs 1,62,000 – Rs 1,62,500. Immediate support is at Rs 1,57,600 – Rs 1,57,000, followed by Rs 1,55,500 – Rs 1,55,000. RSI at 60.93 remains in positive territory but has declined sharply from the overbought region, signalling a cooling of momentum,” an analyst said.
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