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India set to transition to upper middle income country by 2030: SBI Research

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New Delhi, Jan 19: India is set to touch $4,000 per capita income in another four years in 2030 to transition to an upper middle income country and join China and Indonesia at current classification, an SBI Research report said on Monday.

India took 60 years since independence to reach $1 trillion and achieved achieved $2 trillion in another seven years in 2014.

The country achieved $3 trillion in another seven years in 2021 and $4 trillion in another four years in 2025.

“India is likely to achieve $5 trillion in another two years. India achieved $1,000 per capita income in 62 years since independence in 2009. It achieved $2,000 per capita in another 10 years in 2019 and $3,000 per capita income in another seven years in 2026,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India.

The growth journey in the last decade shows that India’s percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has increased from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year horizon to the 95th percentile, implying a rightward shift in its relative position that places India deeper into the upper tail of the global growth distribution.

“If we consider the current per capita GNI (gross national income) threshold for high income country of $13,936 to be reached by 2047 (as per Viksit Bharat vision), India’s per capita GNI has to grow by a CAGR of 7.5 per cent. This seems achievable as India’s per capita GNI has grown by a CAGR of 8.3 per cent during the last 23 years (2001-2024),” Ghosh explained.

However, the threshold level for high income country will also get changed by then. If the threshold for high income country gets changed to $18,000, then India’s per capita GNI needs to grow by a higher rate, CAGR of around 8.9 per cent in the next 23 years for it to become the high-income country by 2047.

The report mentioned that assuming 0.6 per cent average population growth and average deflator of China, Japan, the UK, the US and Euro area of around 2 per cent (average between 1992-2024), this translates into growth of nominal GDP in dollar terms of around 11.5 per cent for the next 23 years.

“India should continue its reform agenda so that we can get higher incremental growth required to reach the high-income bracket,” the report said.

Clearly, India can and will transition to the upper middle-income country, which has the threshold per capita GNI of around $4,500.

Growth of Nominal GDP in dollar terms required to achieve this is around 11.5 per cent which is achievable as this growth has been around 11 per cent before the pandemic (FY04-FY20) and around 10 per cent during FY04-FY25, it added.

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PM Modi to inaugurate fifth edition of ‘SEMICON India’ on Sept 17

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate the fifth edition of SEMICON India 2026 on September 17 here as India seeks to accelerate the development of its domestic semiconductor ecosystem, an official statement said on Tuesday.

The three-day conference and exhibition — themed Silicon to Systems: Building the Ecosystem — will be held between September 17 and September 19 and is being jointly organised by the India Semiconductor Mission (ISM) — under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology (MeitY) — and global industry association SEMI, the ministry said.

The event is expected to bring together policymakers, global semiconductor companies, industry executives, researchers, academics, start-ups and students to discuss developments across the semiconductor and electronics value chain.

In addition, the Centre recently approved Semicon 2.0 to strengthen the country’s semiconductor manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities.

The government said it is also supporting semiconductor research, innovation and design through access to advanced design tools for more than 332 academic institutions and 105 start-ups.

Moreover, 24 start-ups have been approved under the Design Linked Incentive (DLI) scheme.

However, India’s semiconductor ambitions have gained momentum under the Semicon India Programme with 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 to help build a domestic semiconductor ecosystem, according to the ministry.

S. Krishnan, Secretary, MeitY, said the 2026 edition comes at a significant stage in India’s semiconductor journey, noting that three of the 12 projects approved under Semicon 1.0 have commenced commercial production.

“The announcement of Semicon 2.0 with six major pillars further strengthens India’s commitment to build a robust and resilient semiconductor ecosystem,” he said.

Ajit Manocha, President and Chief Executive Officer of SEMI, said India is well positioned to expand its role in the global semiconductor industry through its talent pool, policy support and long-term vision.

Ashok Chandak, President of SEMI India and IESA, said the event reflects India’s efforts to build a comprehensive semiconductor value chain and has become a key platform for collaboration among industry leaders, policymakers, investors and researchers.

Additionally, the exhibition is expected to feature more than 500 exhibitors, including over 240 international companies, with delegations from more than 40 countries.

According to the ministry, the event will also include six country pavilions, 10 state government pavilions, a start-up pavilion, innovation showcase, start-up pitch competition, student hackathon and workforce development pavilion.

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Sensex plunges 493 points, Nifty falls 133 points amid global tensions

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Mumbai, Aug 18: The benchmark indices extended their losses on Tuesday, with the Sensex and Nifty coming under pressure amid heightened geopolitical tensions and weakness in key sectors.

The Sensex fell 493 points, or 0.63 per cent, to 77,235.46, while the Nifty declined 132.75 points, or 0.55 per cent, to 24,154.90.

Commenting on technical outlook, the 24,300 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance.

“A sustained move above 24,300 could help stabilise the structure and support a recovery towards the 24,400–24,500 region. However, failure to reclaim this level could keep recovery attempts vulnerable to selling pressure,” an analyst stated.

“On the downside, 24,150 remains the immediate support level. A decisive break below 24,150 could intensify selling pressure and drag the index towards the 24,000 psychological mark,” as per the market expert.

Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles, Asian Paints and Infosys emerged as the top losers among Nifty constituents. The broader market also remained under pressure, with the Nifty MidCap index declining 0.43 per cent, while the Nifty SmallCap index ended flat.

Sectorally, Nifty IT, Nifty Realty and Nifty PSU Bank were among the biggest drags on the benchmark indices. In contrast, the Nifty Auto index emerged as the top-performing sector during the session.

Experts said that the market sentiment remained cautious as investors assessed the impact of ongoing geopolitical tensions, with selling pressure in IT, realty and PSU banking stocks weighing on the overall market.

“Although domestic fundamentals continue to be supportive, sustained high crude prices and rising input costs could pressure recent earnings upgrades, prompting investors to remain cautious in the near term,” as per the market expert.

Meanwhile, Rupee traded largely flat near 95.67, but the broader weakness continues as the currency faces hurdles in sustaining strength.

“The rupee is expected to trade in the 95.25–95.85 range in the near term,” a market expert noted.

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India-Israel FTA talks to see two more rounds, deal expected to take shape by February 2027: Israeli envoy

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New Delhi, Aug 18: Israel expects two more rounds of negotiations with India on the proposed free trade agreement, with the two sides likely to have greater clarity on the pact by February 2027, Israeli Ambassador to India Reuven Azar said.

In an interaction with media, Azar said the second round of negotiations was held last month, following an agreement on the terms of reference reached at the end of last year.

“We expect to have two more rounds, one in October and probably the last one by February and I think that by then we will know exactly where we stand,” he said.

Asked about the potential benefits of the FTA for both countries, Azar said discussions have so far focused on traditional market access issues, but the negotiations also cover areas such as reciprocal buybacks and cooperation.

He said bridging the gap in market access could be challenging because Israel has already lowered its tariffs and the two markets differ considerably in size.

However, the Israeli envoy identified high-tech cooperation as an area with significant potential for expanding bilateral economic ties.

“The greatest potential, I think, lies in high-tech cooperation,” he told media.

Azar further noted that greater innovation cooperation between the two countries could encourage Israeli companies to operate more freely in the Indian market.

The envoy’s comments come amid efforts by India and Israel to deepen their economic and technology partnership.

Earlier in May, Azar highlighted six core values underpinning the bilateral relationship — civilisational resilience, the fight against terrorism, democratic values, innovation & competitiveness, religious tolerance, and inclusive development.

India and Israel share a special and unique relationship and stressed the need to translate their common values into greater cooperation and investment, according to his video shared on X.

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