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India set to transition to upper middle income country by 2030: SBI Research

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New Delhi, Jan 19: India is set to touch $4,000 per capita income in another four years in 2030 to transition to an upper middle income country and join China and Indonesia at current classification, an SBI Research report said on Monday.

India took 60 years since independence to reach $1 trillion and achieved achieved $2 trillion in another seven years in 2014.

The country achieved $3 trillion in another seven years in 2021 and $4 trillion in another four years in 2025.

“India is likely to achieve $5 trillion in another two years. India achieved $1,000 per capita income in 62 years since independence in 2009. It achieved $2,000 per capita in another 10 years in 2019 and $3,000 per capita income in another seven years in 2026,” said Dr Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor, State Bank of India.

The growth journey in the last decade shows that India’s percentile rank in the cross-country distribution of average real GDP growth has increased from the 92nd percentile over a 25-year horizon to the 95th percentile, implying a rightward shift in its relative position that places India deeper into the upper tail of the global growth distribution.

“If we consider the current per capita GNI (gross national income) threshold for high income country of $13,936 to be reached by 2047 (as per Viksit Bharat vision), India’s per capita GNI has to grow by a CAGR of 7.5 per cent. This seems achievable as India’s per capita GNI has grown by a CAGR of 8.3 per cent during the last 23 years (2001-2024),” Ghosh explained.

However, the threshold level for high income country will also get changed by then. If the threshold for high income country gets changed to $18,000, then India’s per capita GNI needs to grow by a higher rate, CAGR of around 8.9 per cent in the next 23 years for it to become the high-income country by 2047.

The report mentioned that assuming 0.6 per cent average population growth and average deflator of China, Japan, the UK, the US and Euro area of around 2 per cent (average between 1992-2024), this translates into growth of nominal GDP in dollar terms of around 11.5 per cent for the next 23 years.

“India should continue its reform agenda so that we can get higher incremental growth required to reach the high-income bracket,” the report said.

Clearly, India can and will transition to the upper middle-income country, which has the threshold per capita GNI of around $4,500.

Growth of Nominal GDP in dollar terms required to achieve this is around 11.5 per cent which is achievable as this growth has been around 11 per cent before the pandemic (FY04-FY20) and around 10 per cent during FY04-FY25, it added.

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Centre refutes reports on deep-sea energy pipeline between India and the Gulf

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New Delhi, June 16: The government on Tuesday refuted media reports that it is pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.

In a clarification, the Petroleum Ministry said it has noticed a series of media reports suggesting that the Government of India is actively pursuing a deep-sea energy pipeline, sometimes referred to as the Middle East-India Deepwater Pipeline (MEIDP), connecting Gujarat to Oman and other Gulf countries.

“The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas wishes to categorically clarify that no such proposal is currently under consideration by this Ministry. There are no active discussions or negotiations with Oman or any other Gulf countries on this project at any level in this Ministry,” it said in a statement.

“This clarification is issued to put all speculation in this regard to rest,” added the ministry.

Meanwhile, the Malta-flagged LNG carrier DISHA, managed by a Shipping Corporation of India-led consortium, safely transited the Strait of Hormuz on Monday with a cargo of 62,370 metric tonnes of LNG bound for Dahej in Gujarat, and is likely to reach India on June 18.

The government said it remains in continuous coordination with the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian missions abroad, shipping companies, and other relevant stakeholders to ensure the safety and welfare of Indian seafarers and provide all assistance. Port operations across India remain normal, with no congestion reported.

The Directorate General of Shipping (DGS) has also advised shipping companies as well as maritime recruitment and placement agencies to restrict deployment of Indian seafarers to in the Middle East conflict areas until further orders, days after three Indian seafarers onboard MT Settebello were killed after the US military strike on the commercial vessel off the Oman coast.

DG Shipping, in a circular, said masters of vessels operating in or transiting through the Gulf region, including the Strait of Hormuz and adjoining waters, are advised to maintain heightened security awareness, closely monitor navigational warnings received and advisories issued from security agencies, and implement all applicable ship security measures and company security procedures.

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Indian equity markets trade higher amid easing West Asia tensions

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Mumbai, June 16: Indian equity markets traded higher in morning trade on Tuesday after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement to end conflict.

Sensex rose over 300 points or 0.41 per cent to touch an intraday high of 76,579 in early trade, while Nifty gained around 90 points or 0.36 per cent to trade at 23,941.

Sectorally, buying was seen in realty, IT, consumer durables and financial stocks, with Nifty Realty gaining 0.86 per cent and Nifty IT rising 0.74 per cent.

FMCG, media, chemicals and auto indices also traded in positive territory.

In contrast, metal stocks witnessed selling pressure, dragging Nifty Metal down more than 1 per cent.

From the Nifty pack, Hindalco Industries, JSW Steel, Axis Bank, HDFC Life, Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (TMPV) and Tata Steel were among the top losers.

Analysts said the sharp correction in Brent crude prices to below $84 per barrel and stability in the rupee have the potential to lend resilience to the market.

“The strong macro headwind of a rising balance of payments (BoP) deficit is no longer a serious issue for the economy. This positive development has imparted stability to the rupee, which has appreciated to 94.71 against the dollar from its recent low of 96.96,” market experts said.

However, analysts cautioned that a weak monsoon remains a concern, as a below-normal rainfall season could fuel inflationary pressures. They said developments on the monsoon front would need to be closely monitored in the coming weeks.

According to senior US officials, the two sides have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) aimed at ending the nearly four-month-long war, with a formal signing ceremony expected on Friday.

Moreover, US officials indicated that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is likely to resume gradually, easing concerns over disruptions to global energy supplies.

On the commodities front, international benchmark Brent crude traded 0.37 per cent lower at $82.86 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.22 per cent to $80.57 per barrel.

Asian markets traded mostly higher. Japan’s Nikkei advanced 0.62 per cent, while South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 2 per cent. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite gained around 4 per cent. However, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng declined over 1 per cent.

Overnight, Wall Street ended higher, with the S&P 500 gaining 1.65 per cent and the Nasdaq surging nearly 3 per cent.

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Railways okays Rs 201 crore Kavach project to enhance safety on 811 km route in Ambala division

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New Delhi, June 15: In a major step towards strengthening railway safety, Indian Railways has approved the installation of Kavach on the remaining 811 km broad gauge sections of the Ambala Division of the Northern Railway with an investment of Rs 201 crore, according to an official statement issued on Monday.

The sanctioned work will cover important rail routes in the Ambala Division, including Ambala Cantonment–Ludhiana, Kalka–Chandigarh–New Morinda–Sahnewal, Sirhind–Daulatpur Chowk, Rajpura–Bathinda–Shri Ganganagar, and Ludhiana–Dhuri–Jakhal sections.

These routes serve as key rail corridors connecting the states of Haryana, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh. They handle substantial passenger and freight traffic and play an important role in the movement of people and goods across the region.

The work has been approved under the umbrella programme for the provision of Kavach with LTE-based communication backbone on balance routes of the Railways.

Kavach is an indigenously developed Automatic Train Protection (ATP) system designed to enhance operational safety. It helps prevent Signal Passing at Danger (SPAD), automatically applies brakes when required to avert unsafe situations, controls train speed in critical conditions, and significantly reduces the risk of collisions.

Indian Railways is progressively expanding Kavach across its network as part of its ongoing efforts to improve safety, reliability and capacity on high-density and strategically important routes.

Multiple projects worth Rs 1,364.45 crore have been approved to strengthen safety, signalling and communication infrastructure across its network. The sanctioned works include the provision of Kavach on locomotives, the expansion of optical fibre cable network, and the replacement of panel interlocking with electronic interlocking systems across various railway zones.

Indian Railways earlier sanctioned three itemised works in the Northern Railway at a total cost of Rs 400.86 crore for strengthening the communication backbone infrastructure. These works are part of a separate umbrella project approved at a cost of Rs 4,871 crore.

A sub-umbrella provision of Rs 871 crore has been allocated for Northern Railway for the laying of fibre cables along 926.05 route km in Ambala Division, along 1,204 route km along with Optical Fiber Communication (OFC) rooms at stations in Delhi Division, and along 1,074 route km in Lucknow Division. These works aim to enhance the capacity and reliability of communication systems across divisions, which are critical for modern signalling and Kavach deployment.

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