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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

National News

Vashi’s Raheja Residency Fire Tragedy: Case Registered Against Building Manager & Fire Service Contractor After 4 Deaths, Including 6-Year-Old Girl

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Navi Mumbai: A case has been registered against two people in connection with the fire that broke out in Vashi’s Raheja Residency, which killed four residents, including a 6-year-old girl. The incident occurred on October 21 when the blaze, which started around 12.40 a.m. on the 10th floor, quickly spread to the 11th and 12th floors.

a case has been registered at Vashi Police station against Sanjay Ubale, Raheja Residency manager and Pradeep Patil of Life Save Fire Service. The report stated that the building had appointed Life Save Fire Service to carry out fire prevention measures, while Ubale, as the manager, failed to ensure that the work was being completed, leading to the tragic fire that claimed the lives of innocent residents.

The four deceased were identified as Vedika Sundar Balakrishnan (6), Kamla Hiralal Jain (84), Sundar Balakrishnan (44), and Pooja Rajan (39) — all residents of Raheja Residency. While several other residents were injured due to the fire.

Among the injured members were Manabendra (69), Malika (58), and Ritika Ghosh (39) from Room 1106; Bhavna (49), Mahavir (51), and Krish Jain (21) from Room 1005; Nirmal (53) and Mehul Jain (32) from Govind Complex; and Damayanti Agrawal (80) and Sumanti John Topno (18) from Room 1105.

The fire brigade official said the situation was brought under control after several hours of firefighting, followed by extensive cooling operations. According to the Navi Mumbai Municipal Corporation (NMMC) Fire Department, several fire engines from Vashi, Nerul, Airoli, and Koparkhairane stations were rushed to the spot.

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National News

BJP dares CM Mamata to protest against DMK MP’s ‘derogatory’ remarks about Vande Mataram writer

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Kolkata, Dec 9: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), on Tuesday, challenged Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee to speak against the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) MP A. Raja, for making baseless allegations linking Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay, Vande Mataram’s composer and legendary Bengali writer, to past communal tensions in the state.

BJP had raised the question whether Mamata Banerjee would dare to speak against Raja, considering that both Trinamool Congress and FMK are part of the opposition Indian National Development Inclusive Alliance (INDIA).

“Mamata Banerjee must speak up against the INDI Alliance, of which she is a part, as it continues to denigrate and defile the rich legacy of Rishi Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay. Is TMC’s alliance with the DMK and Congress more important than the pride of West Bengal? Shame on her,” observed BJP’s Information Technology Cell Chief and the party’s central observer for West Bengal, Amit Malviya, in a social media statement.

Earlier, the BJP had also issued a statement accusing Raja of “irresponsibly” linking West Bengal’s communal tensions to Bankim Chandra’s writings and thus “twisting facts” in an attempt to paint him as “regressive”.

“Raja’s accusation that Bankim Chandra opposed women’s education and social reform is deeply misleading. Bankim believed real reform must arise from a renewed and awakened Hindu society, not just from superficial legislation – a difference in approach, not in values. Through his novels, Bankim Chandra introduced strong, layered, assertive female characters and consistently encouraged women’s education,” the statement issued by the BJP read.

The BJP also claimed that Mamata Banerjee should answer whether West Bengal’s pride was negotiable for power.

Incidentally, the BJP’s observations come just a couple of hours after CM Mamata, earlier in the day, criticised Prime Minister Narendra Modi over his inadvertent reference to Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay as “Bankim Da” during his speech in Parliament.

The Prime Minister immediately amended his words and said he would henceforth address Chattopadhyay as “Bankim Babu”.

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Mumbai Press Exclusive News

When will the dilapidated roads in Bhiwandi city be repaired? Raees Sheikh asked a question in the Maharashtra Assembly, expressing concern over road accidents.

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Nagpur: Samajwadi Party MLA from Bhiwandi East Raees Sheikh raised the issue of dilapidated roads, debris lying everywhere and increasing road accidents in Bhiwandi city on the first day of the ongoing winter session of the Maharashtra Assembly in Nagpur. Raees Sheikh asked in the Maharashtra Assembly that when will the roads be constructed in Bhiwandi and when will the road accidents due to bad roads be controlled.

Raees Sheikh said that looking at Bhiwandi city, it seems that there is debris lying everywhere in the entire city and there is no explanation as to when will the roads be constructed in Bhiwandi city and where will the funds for its work come from? Raees Sheikh said that the Chief Minister had called a meeting regarding the construction of roads in Bhiwandi city and in this meeting the Chief Minister had formed a committee which includes the Municipal Corporation Commissioner and MMRDA officers and for the construction of these roads the Chief Minister had said that a proposal of Rs 1,000 crores would be presented. Raees Sheikh said that the people who are being affected during the development work and whose structures are being affected should get compensation from the government. Raees Sheikh also stressed that a policy on this should be made in the current meeting and at the Mumbai level and the government should also clarify by when the roads will be constructed? Raees Sheikh raised the issue of road accidents in the assembly

Raees Sheikh, while raising the issue of dilapidated roads in Bhiwandi city in the Maharashtra Assembly, said that recently, Dr. Omar was taking his five-year-old daughter home from school in Bhiwandi city, during which his five-year-old daughter Khadija died in a tragic road accident while he was also seriously injured. Apart from this, a person named Raj Singh also lost his life due to a road accident. He said that the increasing number of road accidents due to dilapidated roads and potholes in Bhiwandi city is a matter of great concern, so the government should explain when these accidents will be controlled and when the roads will be constructed.

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