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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

National News

No move to NDA: Sharad Pawar ends speculation, directs NCP(SP) workers to rebuild from Oppn benches

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In a decisive move aimed at dispelling weeks of intense political rumour-mongering, Nationalist Congress Party (SP) chief, Sharad Pawar, has explicitly informed party workers that the organisation will remain firmly in the Opposition and not join the NDA.

Speaking during a crucial two-day internal strategy session held over the weekend, the Maratha strongman directed party workers to ignore realignment chatter and focus on grassroots mobilisation to challenge the ruling establishment in Maharashtra and at the national level.

The internal directive definitively puts to rest persistent speculation that the NCP(SP) was contemplating a shift towards the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) or the ruling Mahayuti coalition in Maharashtra.

It also formally closes the door on any potential reunion or merger with the faction led by Deputy Chief Minister Sunetra Pawar.

The explicit stance from the NCP founder serves as a key stabilising development for the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) coalition in Maharashtra, reassuring its primary partners—the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) and the Indian National Congress (INC).

Rumours of a potential rift within the MVA had intensified over recent weeks following high-level courtesy visits and administrative meetings.

A delegation of eight NCP(SP) Lok Sabha MPs led by Working President Supriya Sule and MP Bajrang Sonawane recently met Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah.

Additionally, Sharad Pawar’s routine courtesy meetings with government executives further fuelled political realignment theories.

Addressing these misgivings, the party leadership clarified that administrative dialogues with central and state ministers are purely intended to pursue constituency development, agrarian relief, and public interest matters — a standard parliamentary approach that does not compromise the party’s core political opposition stance.

Outlining the party’s action plan following the strategy meetings, Maharashtra unit president Shashikant Shinde confirmed that the NCP(SP) is launching a comprehensive campaign across the state.

“Our party President Sharad Pawar personally attended the two-day strategy session and clarified our stand very clearly. NCP(SP) will work as an effective Opposition in the state and at the national level. The party will launch a statewide exercise including tours, workshops, brainstorming sessions, and public agitations focussing on further strengthening the party organisation,” Shinde stated.

Senior leaders, including Supriya Sule and Shashikant Shinde, have already concluded organisational review meetings across four major regions — Vidarbha, Western Maharashtra, North Maharashtra, and Marathwada — with the Konkan region scheduled next.

District heads have been instructed to immediately fill vacant organisational posts created after the July 2023 party split and prepare local units for aggressive street-level agitations focussed on local civic, economic, and agricultural crises.

Political observers note that Sharad Pawar’s firm refusal to align with the BJP allows the NCP(SP) to protect its secular and regional identity, maintaining a distinct ideological separation from the faction led by Sunetra Pawar.

Strengthening district-level machinery positions the NCP(SP) to effectively contest local body and state elections within the MVA seat-sharing frameworks.

Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar’s direct instruction eliminates speculative narratives, ensuring the party mobilises as an active Opposition force across Maharashtra.

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Crime

Delhi Crime Branch busts auto-lifter network, three arrested; five stolen cars recovered

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New Delhi : The Delhi Police Crime Branch has arrested three alleged members of an organised auto-lifting and vehicle disposal network involved in the theft and resale of cars, recovering five stolen vehicles, 104 forged High Security Registration Plates (HSRPs) and 24 forged Registration Certificates (RCs), officials said on Monday.

According to a press release issued by the Crime Branch, the accused have been identified as Amit Nagar alias Sonu, 35, a resident of Rohini; Atom Jagat Singh, 45, of Imphal East, Manipur; and Potsangbam Mukesh Singh, 28, also from Imphal East.

The Crime Branch said the gang was allegedly operating under the leadership of Nagar and had a network extending across several states. The police said Nagar disclosed during interrogation that he had supplied more than 100 stolen high-end cars to receivers in different states across India.

“In a well-planned operation, the gang leader, Amit Nagar @ Sonu, was arrested following invocation of the MCOCA,” the Crime Branch said in its release.

The investigation began with the scrutiny of vehicle theft cases, CCTV footage and field Intelligence. On May 12, police apprehended Potsangbam Mukesh Singh from Chhatarpur Enclave Phase-II and recovered forged RCs from his possession. A subsequent search of his rented premises led to the recovery of an instrument used for fixing registration plates, 104 forged HSRPs and 22 forged RCs.

At his instance, a stolen Maruti Baleno was recovered from Wazirabad. On May 14, police arrested Atom Jagat Singh and recovered another stolen Maruti Swift from Mukherjee Nagar at his instance.

Amit Nagar was arrested on July 28, following which a stolen Maruti Swift Dzire was recovered, police said. During the investigation, the Crime Branch said it found that Nagar allegedly operated a network through associates who purchased stolen vehicles and arranged their disposal in other states.

On August 13, two more stolen vehicles, a Kia Seltos and a Hyundai Creta, were recovered from Ukhrul district in Manipur, near the Myanmar border, at the instance of Atom Jagat Singh. Police said the vehicles had been stolen in Delhi and were allegedly brought to the border area for disposal and were intended to be sold to underground groups.

The Crime Branch said the alleged syndicate used duplicate keys, electronic equipment and computer-based devices to bypass vehicle security systems and target high-end cars and SUVs. It also allegedly used forged registration documents and number plates to facilitate the resale of stolen vehicles.

The police said the accused operated through associates in states including Manipur, Nagaland, Rajasthan, Punjab, Assam and West Bengal. The investigation is continuing to identify other alleged members of the network, trace additional stolen vehicles and establish the complete chain involved in their theft, transportation and disposal.

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National News

Junior doctors across Andhra Pradesh intensify strike to demand hike in stipend

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Amaravati : Demanding a hike in stipend, junior doctors across Andhra Pradesh on Monday began a total boycott of emergency services, disrupting healthcare delivery in government medical colleges and teaching hospitals.

Andhra Pradesh Junior Doctors’ Association (APJUDA) had given a call for the boycott of emergency services to press for their demands, including long-pending stipend revision.

About 9,000 resident doctors, medical interns, junior residents, super-speciality postgraduates, senior residents, and doctors deployed under the District Residency Programme (DRP) scheme were staying away from duties, affecting Intensive Care Units, casualty wards, and labour rooms.

Junior doctors in all 19 government medical colleges in the state are participating in the strike.

The phased strike began on August 11 with a time-bound withdrawal of non-emergency services. With no written assurance coming from the government, APJUDA intensified its protest.

Non-emergency healthcare services remained fully suspended across all government teaching hospitals, superspeciality units, and peripheral medical colleges.

The government said it has made arrangements to ensure that patients do not face difficulties due to the junior doctors’ strike. The department of health is continuously reviewing the situation with District Collectors, medical college principals, and hospital superintendents.

Additional doctors are being kept on standby wherever needed. Special arrangements are being made to ensure the uninterrupted functioning of emergency departments, ICUs, maternity services, operation theatres, NICU, PICU, dialysis units, and trauma services, it said.

Measures are being taken to ensure the availability of medicines, oxygen, blood, and essential medical supplies, said an official release.

According to APJUDA, the stipend hike has been pending since January 1. As per an order issued by the Health, Medical and Family Welfare Department in 2009, there will be a biennial revision of junior doctors’ stipends by about 15 per cent.

APJUDA leaders said despite repeated appeals, the authorities failed to give a clear assurance on a stipend hike, forcing them to go on strike in a phased manner.

While APJUDA demanded a 15 per cent hike in stipend, the government has offered a 3 per cent hike for postgraduate junior doctors and a 5 per cent hike for house surgeons and interns.

APJUDA is also demanding implementation of National Medical Commission norms in recruiting MSc and PhD holders to clinical faculty posts. It is also opposing a proposed increase in the retirement age of doctors from 62 to 65 years.

The government said during the talks APJUDA was informed that although the Finance Department is not favourably inclined towards a 15 per cent hike given the current financial situation, there is a proposal to implement a specific percentage increase annually for interns and PG students.

It assured them that this annual increment process would be maintained. The government urged the junior doctors to accept the proposed hike, taking into account the state’s financial condition and the implementation of public welfare schemes.

According to an official release, the government spends approximately Rs 586.08 crore annually on stipends for 9,501 junior doctors.

If the demand for a 15 per cent hike in stipend is accepted, the government will incur an additional annual expenditure of approximately Rs 87.91 crore.

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