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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

National News

Delhi Assembly Election 2025: Under ‘Jeevan Raksha Yojana’ Congress Announces To Provide ₹25 Lakh Health Cover

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New Delhi: With an eye on the upcoming Delhi assembly elections, Congress on Wednesday announced ‘Jeevan Raksha Yojana’, promising to provide Rs 25 lakh health cover per family.

The announcement was made at a press conference by former Rajasthan Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot here.

Gehlot termed the scheme a “game changer” in Delhi “…We have given a lot of coverage to the health… ‘Jeevan Raksha Yojana’ of the Delhi government will be similar to ‘Chiranjeevi Yojana’ of the Rajasthan government…I am happy that I got the opportunity to launch this scheme here,” the senior congress leader told reporters later.

“…The health insurance scheme of Rajasthan has been very successful and in Delhi we will do the same. It provides benefit to all whereas Ayushman Bharat has its limitations…,” he told reporters.

He also expressed optimism about the state polls, “…The situation in Delhi has changed now. Congress is doing a better campaign and this time, the results will be different.” Later Delhi Congress unit reposted a tweet by Vaibhav Walia, Secretary Communications, Indian National Congress,” Congress launched the second guarantee for Delhi elections today.

Every Delhiite will get free medical insurance cover of Rs 25 lakhs when Congress comes to power.” https://x.com/vbwalia/status/1876912357265518712 “In recent elections across the country, the Congress has started a new model of governance which caters to the welfare of each and every citizen with a special focus on the underprivileged sections.,” it added.

Earlier, Uttar Pradesh Congress President Ajay Rai claimed that the former Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dixit had served the people of the National Capital, unlike her successor, Arvind Kejriwal.

Speaking on the upcoming Delhi assembly polls, Rai told media on Wednesday, “You have seen that in Delhi, Congress has always remained strong. Sheila Dikshit did so much work in Delhi, while Kejriwal did not do anything. This time we will see a change in Delhi which will be in favour of Congress…”

The Delhi assembly polls will be held in a single phase on February 5 and the counting of votes will take place on February 8.

The last date for filing nominations is January 17. The date for scrutiny of nominations is January 18. While last date for withdrawal of candidature is January 20.

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National News

Iss devi ko kitne bungalow chahiye: BJP amplifies attack on Delhi CM Atishi

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New Delhi, Jan 8: The political tension in Delhi escalated on Wednesday as the BJP intensified its attack on the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) over the ongoing ‘bungalow for CM’ controversy. The BJP’s state president, Virendra Sachdeva, raised pointed questions directed at Delhi Chief Minister Atishi, sarcastically asking, “Toh aakhir iss devi ko kitne bungalow chahiye?”

Speaking to Media, Sachdeva demanded clarity on the issue, asking, “Whose bungalow is this? This government residence where ‘Atishi’ is written — whose bungalow is it?

“If it was allotted to her, why is she asking for ‘Sheesh Mahal’? If it was being given to her, why didn’t she accept it earlier? How many bungalows does a Chief Minister need in Delhi? She lives in Kalkaji, yet refuses to reveal who occupies this one. Even locals are tight-lipped, though posters outside point to its occupant. So how many bungalows does this ‘devi’ need? We want an answer.”

Sachdeva further reacted to BJP leaders’ calls to turn the ‘Sheesh Mahal’ into a museum, suggesting, “I have said that the ‘Sheesh Mahal’ should be declared a museum of corruption. If the BJP forms the government in Delhi, no BJP Chief Minister will stay in that Sheesh Mahal.”

As Delhi Assembly elections near, the ‘Sheesh Mahal’ and ‘bungalow for CM’ controversy is becoming a central issue in the political debate.

The AAP has retaliated by dubbing the Prime Minister’s residence as the ‘Raj Mahal,’ accusing the BJP of overspending on it with a budget of Rs 2,700 crore.

This back-and-forth between ‘Sheesh Mahal’ and ‘Raj Mahal’ reflects the fierce political rivalry, with the AAP-led by Arvind Kejriwal, the BJP, and the Congress all gearing up for the February 5 elections.

The latest drama unfolded when AAP leaders, including Sanjay Singh and Saurabh Bharadwaj, were stopped by the police from entering the Delhi Chief Minister’s official residence.

The AAP had invited the media to tour the premises in an effort to counter the BJP’s criticisms of the Chief Minister’s residence. With only a month left before the Delhi Assembly elections, the political war over ‘Sheesh Mahal’, ‘Raj Mahal,’ and the fight for the capital continues to heat up.

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Crime

Sandeshkhali gang-rape case: Calcutta HC orders police protection for victim

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Kolkata, Jan 8: A single-judge bench of the Calcutta High Court, on Wednesday, directed the state police to provide 24-hour protection to the woman, who had earlier this week approached the court accusing the local cops of a lackadaisical investigation into her complaint of gang-rape against three men, including a local Trinamool Congress leader.

At the same time, the single judge bench of Justice Jay Sengupta also directed the local police station to submit a report in the form of an affidavit on the progress of the investigation into the woman’s complaint by January 12.

The state government counsel, on Wednesday, informed the court that there had been significant progress in the investigation of the matter and the process was on to file the charge sheet in the case. However, the victim’s counsel claimed that although the accused was constantly threatening her and her family members, there had been no action on the part of the local police.

Thereafter Justice Sengupta directed the state police to provide 24-hour police protection not only to the victim but the entire family besides asking the state police to file a progress report investigation.

In her petition, the victim alleged that the crime took place in May last year, and she and her family members approached the local police to act on the matter. She has now alleged that for all these months the cops have not moved an inch forward in the course of the investigation. At the same time, she and her family members are under pressure from the accused and their associates to withdraw the complaint at the local police station.

Among the three accused named one is Trinamool Congress’ block president in Sandeshkhali Dilip Mondal. Calcutta High Court had admitted the petition.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee made a yearend trip to Sandeshkhali on December 30, after avoiding such an initiative during the entire period of crisis there earlier this year following allegations of sexual harassment of local women and land grabbing of people by local Trinamool Congress leader Sheikh Shahjahan.

While addressing a public meeting at Sandeshkhali on that day, the Chief Minister hinted towards the “money game” influencing the movement by locals there earlier this year.

On that very day, leader of opposition in the West Bengal Assembly Suvendu Adhujari conducted a protest at the same place, defying the last-minute denial of police permission for the same. He drew a comparison between Mamata Banerjee and the chief of the caretaker government in neighbouring Bangladesh, Muhammad Yunus.

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