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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

Business

Scams in UPA regime dragged down GDP growth rate to 5.6pc in 2012-13: BJP

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New Delhi, Feb 7: The BJP has slammed the Congress for its primary claim of enabling “7.6 per cent growth”, pointing out that this was effectuated by the global economic boom between 2004-08 and conceals the decline to 5.6 per cent in 2012-13, caused by corruption and fiscal mismanagement.

The BJP’s factsheet highlights that the average growth rate during the 10 years of UPA (2004-2014) was restricted to 6.8 per cent compared to NDA’s 8.4 per cent average (2014-2024).

The UPA relied on reckless borrowing, leading to a ballooning current account deficit and 9.3 per cent inflation. On the other hand, despite the Covid pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, India’s GDP growth for 2024-25 is projected at 6.4 per cent, the highest among major economies, the factsheet states.

It cites the Economic Survey 2024-25 projection of a 6.3-6.8 per cent growth rate for FY25-26, in line with other financial bodies such as the IMF.

The rise in digital transactions from 2.2 billion in 2013-14 to over 208.5 billion in 2024, driven by Digital India, and the opening of 500 million bank accounts under PMJDY showcase inclusive economic growth, according to the BJP factsheet

It also mentions the JAM Trinity (Jan Dhan, Aadhaar, Mobile Network) ensured DBT payments of Rs 27,442.08 crore were made between March 24 and April 17, 2020 (24 days) during peak Covid-19 to 11.42 crore beneficiaries.

It also cites the Economic Survey 2024-25 for showing Financial Inclusion Index rose from 53.9 in 2021 to 64.2 in 2024 as an indicator of growth with equity.

The factsheet states that in “a resurgent India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government, as many as 24.82 crore people have risen out of multidimensional poverty between 2014-15 and 2022-23”.

In contrast, the UPA government triggered one of India’s worst non-performing asset (NPA) crises in the banking sector. The ‘phone-a-loan’ scam under UPA led to a surge in bad loans, crippling businesses and financial institutions, the factsheet states.

By 2018, NPAs reached a staggering 11.6 per cent of gross advances, with the root cause traced back to bad lending decisions made between 2008-2014. High-profile defaulters like Nirav Modi, Vijay Mallya, and Mehul Choksi flourished under the lax regulatory environment of the UPA era, it observes.

Besides, the lack of a robust bankruptcy framework left struggling businesses with no structured exit mechanism, which was only brought in in 2016 with Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) 2016, the BJP factsheet added.

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Crime

Love or a trap? Cyber Police warns against romance scams this Valentine’s Week

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Ranchi, Feb 7: As Valentine’s Week starts with promises of love, roses, and heartfelt commitments, cybercriminals are also gearing up to exploit emotions for financial fraud.

Amidst the celebration of romance, authorities are stepping up efforts to protect people from falling victim to “romance scams.”

To counter these digital deceptions, the Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C), under the Union Home Ministry, has launched a special awareness campaign on social media, running parallel to Valentine’s Week.

Using the hashtag #RomanceScamPreventionWeek, officials are spreading crucial information to help people identify and avoid online scams disguised as love.

The Jharkhand Police has also joined the initiative, posting alerts on its official social media handles. One of the campaign’s eye-catching posters, shared on the I4C X handle, poses a thought-provoking question: “What will you do if your online sweetheart asks you for money?”

The post further warns: “This romance season, don’t get duped in the name of love! Join Cyber Dost in Romance Scam Prevention Week and learn how to outsmart scammers.”

Authorities are urging people to stay vigilant and report fraud immediately by calling 1930 or lodging a complaint at cybercrime.gov.in.

A cyber police officer in Ranchi highlighted a recent case where a woman fell prey to a romance scam. She met a man through a matrimonial site, exchanged numbers, and began building a connection. The man planned a visit to Ranchi, but just before their meeting, he claimed he was detained at Delhi airport and needed urgent financial help. Believing his story, she transferred Rs 7 lakh — only to realise later that his profile had vanished without a trace.

With online romance on the rise, the cyber police’s message is clear — Trust your heart, but verify with your mind. Don’t let emotions cloud your judgment — because in the digital world, not every love story is real.

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Maharashtra

‘We don’t laugh at the same joke again and again’: Fadnavis takes dig at Rahul Gandhi

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Nagpur, Feb 7: Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis on Friday hit back at Congress MP and Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, Rahul Gandhi, after he raised concerns over the rise in voter numbers during the Maharashtra Assembly elections.

Taking a swipe at Gandhi, Fadnavis said, “Rahul Gandhi is firing cannonballs in anticipation of his party’s defeat in the Delhi elections. After the Delhi results, Congress will be wiped out. He is simply practicing how to spin a new narrative. But we don’t laugh at the same joke over and over again.”

Dismissing Gandhi’s concerns over voter numbers, Fadnavis added, “The Election Commission has already provided all answers regarding voter lists — where names were added, where they were deleted — so there’s no need for further clarification. Rahul Gandhi knows the Delhi results will be a disaster for Congress, so he’s preparing his script in advance.”

He further criticised the Congress leader, saying, “As long as Rahul Gandhi keeps avoiding real introspection and instead focuses on misleading statements, there is no possibility of a Congress revival.”

Fadnavis’ remarks came after Rahul Gandhi, joined by Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut and NCP (SP) MP Supriya Sule, at a press conference in Delhi on Friday questioned the Election Commission of India (ECI) on how 9.7 crore votes were cast when Maharashtra’s adult population stands at 9.4 crore. Gandhi clarified that the opposition was not making accusations but was merely demanding transparency in the voters’ list.

However, his comments drew sharp criticism from the ruling BJP and its allies.

Shiv Sena Parliamentary Party chief Shrikant Shinde demanded a public apology from Rahul Gandhi, stating, “He must apologize not just to Maharashtra but to the entire nation for his reckless remarks. He should accept the will of the voters with humility instead of habitually trying to discredit India’s electoral integrity for short-term political gains.”

Shinde further asserted, “Maharashtra witnessed its highest voter turnout in 30 years, a testament to the strength of our democracy. Full credit goes to the Election Commission and Maharashtra’s Chief Electoral Officer for ensuring a free and fair election.”

Mumbai BJP chief and state IT Minister Ashish Shelar accused Rahul Gandhi of indulging in “public melodrama” instead of reflecting on Congress’ defeat. “Rahul Gandhi and the Congress are still reeling from Maharashtra’s rejection,” he said.

Maharashtra BJP president and state Revenue Minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule expressed similar sentiments, stating, “The Congress and its allies have not recovered from the shock of their crushing defeat. Instead of accepting the people’s verdict, they are casting doubt on voter turnout. The Election Commission has repeatedly clarified the increase in voters, yet they continue to make misleading allegations, undermining democracy.”

Bawankule also linked Gandhi’s remarks to the upcoming Delhi Assembly election results, saying, “As the inevitable defeat looms, he is trying to shift focus to Maharashtra’s election process. This is nothing but desperation.”

Taking a further jab, he remarked, “Supriya Sule, who sat next to him at the press conference, had previously said, ‘I won on this EVM.’ But Rahul Gandhi, who thrives on political stunts, refuses to acknowledge the truth. Rahulji, believe in democracy — stop defaming it with baseless allegations. The people have already seen through your lies.”

NCP chief spokesperson Anand Paranjape also dismissed Gandhi’s claims, attributing them to Congress’ fear of an impending defeat in Delhi.

“Since the Census has not been conducted yet, some discrepancies between the population and voter lists are expected. Moreover, the increase in voter numbers between Lok Sabha and Assembly elections is natural, as all parties push for new voter registrations. The Election Commission has also increased the number of polling stations, which further explains the rise in voter turnout,” he explained.

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