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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

Crime

Mumbai Airport Customs Seizes Hydroponic Weed Worth ₹12 Crore; Passenger Arrested

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Mumbai: The Mumbai Airport Customs officers have arrested a passenger for allegedly smuggling hydroponic weed valued at around Rs 12 crore, sourced from Bangkok.

According to the agency sources, on the basis of specific intelligence, the Customs officers at Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport (CSMIA), intercepted one passenger arriving from Bangkok on Wednesday.

During the examination of the baggage, the Customs officers recovered 11.92 kg of suspected hydroponic weed (marijuana), with an illicit market value of approximately Rs 12 crores.

The narcotic substances were concealed inside the checked-in trolley bag carried by the passenger, who was arrested under the provisions of the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act.

In his statement, the passenger told Customs officers that he was aware that smuggling of hydroponic weed and other illegal drugs into India attracts stringent punishment. However, he was getting some inducement in lieu of smuggling the contraband to India.

“The preliminary investigation carried out so far in accordance with the law and the statement given by the accused disclose involvement of other persons who are yet to be traced. The investigation in this case is at the preliminary stage and efforts are on to trace other suspects involved in the case,” said a Customs officer.

On Tuesday, Mumbai Airport Customs officers had arrested two persons – Thane resident Mohammad Irfan Khan (27) and Malwani resident Sara Bi (36) for allegedly smuggling hydroponic weed collectively valued at Rs 7.86 crore.

In the intervening night of October 19-20, on the basis of specific intelligence, the Customs officers at CSMIA intercepted one passenger arriving from Bangkok and seized hydroponic weed worth Rs 10.50 crore.

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Business

Colgate-Palmolive India’s Q2 profit falls 17 pc, revenue slips over 6 pc

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Mumbai, Oct 23: Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited on Thursday reported a 17 per cent drop in its net profit for the second quarter of the current financial year (Q2 FY26).

The company’s profit stood at Rs 327.50 crore for the quarter ended September 2025, compared to Rs 395.05 crore in the same period last financial year (Q2 FY25), according to its stock exchange filing.

Revenue also fell 6.15 per cent year-on-year (YoY) to Rs 1,519.50 crore, down from Rs 1,619.11 crore in the previous fiscal.

Operating income or EBITDA declined 6 per cent to Rs 465.43 crore, while the EBITDA margin was almost unchanged at 30.6 per cent, compared to 30.7 per cent last financial year.

Prabha Narasimhan, Managing Director and CEO of Colgate-Palmolive India, said the quarter’s performance reflected a temporary impact from disruptions among distributors and retailers due to the GST rate revision.

She added that the company has worked with its partners to ensure consumers benefit from the lower prices that took effect after the tax change.

“Despite the short-term challenges, we remain focused on our long-term strategic goals and will continue to invest in our brands,” Narasimhan said.

Alongside the results, the company announced a first interim dividend of Rs 24 per share for the financial year 2025–26, amounting to a total payout of Rs 652.8 crore.

The record date for the dividend has been set as November 3, and the payment will be made on or before November 19, according to the company’s exchange filing.

Colgate-Palmolive (India)’s quarterly results were released after market hours. On Thursday, its shares closed 1.16 per cent higher at Rs 2,286.90 on the NSE.

However, the stock has fallen 31.35 per cent over the past year and 14.69 per cent so far in 2025.

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Crime

BSF apprehends minor with 11 gold biscuits along India-Bangladesh border

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Kolkata, Oct 23: The Border Security Force (BSF) has apprehended a minor boy with 11 gold biscuits along the Indo-Bangladesh Border (IBB) in the North 24-Parganas district of West Bengal.

The incident has brought to light how smugglers are now using minors as couriers to evade arrest.

“Troops of the 143 Bn BSF, South Bengal Frontier, deployed at the Bithari Border Outpost, had received intelligence inputs of an attempt to smuggle gold in their area of jurisdiction. During checks, they came across an Indian minor carrying a briefcase. During a search, a black packet with the 11 gold biscuits were found in his possession,” a senior BSF official said.

According to an official, the weight of the seized gold is 1,286.17 grams. It is valued at around Rs 1.64 crore.

During questioning, the boy said that he is a resident of Daharkanda village in the Swarupnagar police station area of North 24-Parganas. He also said that he had been sent by his mother to deliver the packet to a designated point.

The boy has been handed over to concerned authorities, along with the gold, for further legal processing. A search has been launched for the boy’s mother and others involved in the racket.

“This recovery once again underscores the alertness, professionalism, and commitment of BSF troops in curbing cross-border smuggling along the India–Bangladesh border, despite attempts by criminal networks to exploit minors for such illegal activities,” the official said.

While stating that the BSF personnel are fully capable of preventing all kinds of illegal activities along the border, he urged the border population to report any information regarding gold smuggling or other crimes to ensure peace in the area.

“They can call the Seema Sathi Helpline Number 14419 or send a WhatsApp text or voice message to 9903472227. Those providing credible information would be suitably rewarded and their identities kept confidential,” he said.

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