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2025 Delhi dangal: Congress vote share to determine AAP, BJP seat tally

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New Delhi, Jan 7: In the last two Assembly elections in Delhi in 2020 and 2015, voters overwhelmingly backed the AAP, giving it 53.6 per cent and 54.3 per cent vote share respectively, a comforting fact for the ruling party which is hoping to clock a decent number of seats even in the upcoming polls on February 5, despite the pressure mounted by the BJP and the Congress.

The belief in the AAP ranks is that even in the worst scenario, the drop in their vote share can never be so drastic that the party will be vanquished. They hope to continue being a force in Delhi politics.

As pollsters have indicated repeatedly, the BJP’s tally in Delhi Assembly elections, partially, depends on the Congress’ performance and its ability to cut into the AAP’s vote-bank that includes Muslims, slum dwellers, Purvanchalis and other residents of unauthorised colonies who vouch for former Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal’s welfare schemes.

In 2020, the total turnout was 62.82 per cent and the AAP won 62 seats (vote share 53.6 per cent). The AAP won 67 seats in 2015.

The BJP won 8 seats in 2020 and 3 in 2015. The saffron party’s vote share in 2020 was 38.5 per cent. The Congress got a 4.26 per cent vote share in 2020.

In 2015, the total voter turnout was 67.47 per cent with the AAP’s vote share at 54.3 per cent, rising by 24.8 per cent from the previous outing in 2013, and its seats increased from 28 to 67, a gain of 39.

In the same election, the BJP’s vote share dipped by 0.8 per cent to 32.3 per cent and its seats reduced to 3 from 32 in 2013. The Congress vote share was 9.7 per cent, down 14.9 per cent, and it failed to open its tally – a loss of eight seats.

This election was a defining outing for the Congress which lost all its voters to the new outfit. The Congress’ loss of a vote share of 14.9 per cent was AAP’s gain.

The Modi Effect: Between 2015 and 2020 elections, the BJP’s vote share increased from 32.3 per cent to 38.5 per cent. The 2020 Assembly election was the first time that the BJP supporters, along with other voters in Delhi, were voting after seeing the performance of the Narendra Modi government at the Centre after a full tenure of five years.

Ahead of the 2015 elections, the Modi government was just one-year-old and Delhiites hadn’t seen his performance over a long period.

If previous results are any indication, the BJP support and vote share in the upcoming elections are likely to rise as voters are now aware of the ‘Modi Magic’ and his reputation to deliver on guarantees.

The possibility of Delhiites voting on Modi’s face value, just as voters did in Haryana and Maharashtra, is very high, especially, after the Prime Minister has guaranteed the continuation of all free welfare schemes being offered in the national Capital by the AAP and promising to make Delhi a global-level Capital.

Pollsters believe that if the AAP and the BJP promise the same free welfare services, the differentiating factor that might impact the voter decision could be the clean image of the top leaders of both the parties that is, Arvind Kejriwal for the AAP and PM Modi for the BJP.

“Such a Modi versus Kejriwal clash in Delhi could give an edge to the BJP due to the corruption allegations against the AAP leader,” said a political science teacher from Delhi University, cautioning that the BJP will have to counter Kejriwal’s ability to extract voter sympathy by claiming victimisation by the Centre and slapping of “false” corruption cases.

Voter turnout: A high voter turnout, a good performance by the Congress, in terms of vote share, and a restriction on bogus voting could still be the key factors that may influence the fate of both the AAP and the BJP in the upcoming elections.

An improved performance by the Congress may only keep the grand old party alive in the city where its identity is gradually getting eroded.

Among Delhi districts, the highest turnout in the 2015 Assembly elections was reported from North West at 68.58 per cent followed by Shahdara district at 65.81 per cent and 64.26 per cent in East district.

The high turnout in trans-Yamuna area, in a way, reflects the high expectations of the residents of unauthorised colonies and unplanned areas in terms of free water, power, health, sewer and roads – which the AAP has promised time and again.

The lowest turnout was in New Delhi district at 56.24 per cent, reflecting the voter apathy in more developed colonies whose residents already enjoy good infrastructure and, largely, are not eligible for free power and water. The district is home to constituencies like Patel Nagar, Delhi Cantonment, Rajender Nagar, New Delhi, R.K. Puram and Greater Kailash.

Business

IndiGo disruptions may cause revenue loss, penalties to company: Report

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New Delhi, Dec 8: Widespread flight disruptions at IndiGo are credit negative, and refunds and compensation could cause it “significant financial damage”, credit rating agency Moody’s warned on Monday.

In a note, Moody’s said that regulatory penalties from the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) remain possible as the airline failed to plan for aviation rules communicated over a year earlier.

The crisis struck as the airlines entered their peak winter schedule, with “significant lapses in planning, oversight and resource management” as the Phase 2 of the Flight Duty Time Limitation (FDTL) rules were introduced on November 1, 2025, after being communicated more than a year earlier, it noted.

The rules reclassified midnight–6 a.m. duties as night duty and cut permissible landings in 24 hours from six to two or three. The agency said that IndiGo’s lean operating model lacked resilience to integrate the change, forcing a system‑wide schedule reset.

Over 1,600 flights were cancelled on December 5, and over 1,200 were grounded in November, with cancellations beginning on December 2. Moody’s said IndiGo is yet to fully restore normal operations.

IndiGo said it was set to operate over 1,800 flights on Monday, up from 1,650 on Sunday, adding that more than 4,500 bags have been delivered to respective customers, and “we are on track to deliver the rest in the next 36 hours”.

The airline said it expects a return to full schedules by mid-December, adding that it is working “round the clock” to normalise operations.

It has so far refunded Rs 827 crore to affected passengers, and the rest is under process for cancellations up to December 15.

Union Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu said in the Parliament on Monday that the government has initiated a thorough inquiry into the matter.

“IndiGo was supposed to manage the crew and roster…We will take strict action. We will set an example for every airline. If there is any non-compliance, we will take action,” he said on the floor of the Rajya Sabha.

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Crime

Palghar Crime: 40-Year-Old Constable Arrested For Allegedly Raping Woman Inside Kasa Police Station

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Palghar, Maharashtra, Dec 08: A 40-year-old police constable has been arrested for allegedly raping a woman inside the Kasa police station in Maharashtra’s Palghar district, officials said on Monday.

According to a senior official from the Palghar rural police, the incident took place last week when the woman had visited the station to record her statement in connection with an ongoing case. The constable allegedly assaulted her within the premises.

Following a complaint filed by the woman, a case of rape was registered and the constable was arrested on Sunday, officials confirmed.

In the aftermath of the incident, the in-charge of the Kasa police station has been transferred. Further investigation is underway.

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National News

PM Modi recalls how Vande Mataram defied British oppression, stood ‘like a rock’

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New Delhi, Dec 8: Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Monday, invoked the enduring spirit of ‘Vande Mataram’ while initiating a day-long discussion in the Lok Sabha to mark the 150 years of the national song.

He described it as a hymn that stood “like a rock” against British oppression and continued to inspire unity across generations.

Tracing the song’s journey from its composition by Bankim Chandra Chattopadhyay in 1875 to its role in the freedom struggle, PM Modi said ‘Vande Mataram’ became a current of emotion that bound the nation together.

“Even when crises like the coronavirus pandemic struck, the spirit of ‘Vande Mataram’ continued to connect the country. Today, as we march towards an ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ (Developed India), this hymn remains a source of strength,” he noted.

The Prime Minister quoted Mahatma Gandhi, who had described ‘Vande Mataram’ as a song that united the nation.

“Pujya Bapu (Mahatma Gandhi) said ‘Vande Mataram’ connects us. It is the dream of today’s generation to build a prosperous India, and this song continues to inspire that vision,” PM Modi said.

He emphasised that the hymn was more than just words — it was a mantra of sacrifice, resilience, and unity.

From the days of colonial bans, when people were punished for speaking or printing the words, to the sacrifices of countless freedom fighters who embraced martyrdom with ‘Vande Mataram’ on their lips, the song has remained a symbol of defiance and hope.

PM Modi urged the Parliament to ensure that the legacy of ‘Vande Mataram’ is preserved and passed on to future generations.

“This is not just a tribute to history but a reaffirmation of our democratic spirit. The lessons of the past must continue to guide our future,” he said, adding that the 150th anniversary was an opportunity to restore pride in a hymn that has been the heartbeat of Bharat.

Initiating a day-long discussion on 150 years of ‘Vande Mataram’ in the Lok Sabha, PM Modi noted that ‘Vande Mataram’ stood like a rock and inspired unity despite British oppression.

“When ‘Vande Mataram’ completed 100 years, the nation was chained by the Emergency. At that time, the Constitution was throttled and those who lived and died for patriotism were pushed behind bars,” he said.

“The Emergency was a dark chapter in our history. Now we have the opportunity to restore the greatness of ‘Vande Mataram’. And I believe this opportunity should not be allowed to pass,” PM Modi added.

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